中国城市林业2025，Vol.23Issue(5)：1-8,8.DOI:10.12169/zgcsly.2025.09.15.0002
基于贝叶斯网络的西安城市蓝绿空间生态系统服务权衡与协同
Ecosystem Service Trade-offs and Synergies within Urban Blue-green Space in Xi'an Based on a Bayesian Network
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to quantitatively identify the trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services(ESs)in blue-green spaces within central urban areas and determine their key driving factors,thereby providing a scientific basis for the precise optimization of ecological spaces in high-density cities.[Method]Taking the central urban area of Xi'an as a case study,the paper constructs an analytical framework of"landscape pattern-ecosystem services-driving factors"by combining MSPA landscape connectivity analysis,InVEST model assessment,and Bayesian network modeling to quantify the complex relationships among five types of ESs and to probabilistically infer the underlying driving mechanisms.[Result]The findings indicate that:1)Carbon sequestration service and habitat quality exhibit a strong synergistic relationship(correlation coefficient of 0.78),whereas natural accessibility shows significant trade-offs with both flood mitigation and cooling service(correlation coefficients of-0.65 and-0.58,respectively);2)Land use type,landscape connectivity,landscape pattern,vegetation coverage,and population density are identified as critical factors influencing the interactions among ESs;and 3)The threshold effect of the landscape core index is approximately 40%,beyond which the synergistic level among ESs is significantly enhanced.[Conclusion]This research validates the efficacy of Bayesian networks in deciphering the complex causal relationships of ESs in high-density urban settings.It not only reveals fundamental patterns and key thresholds governing ESs interactions in central urban areas,but also provides a concrete and quantifiable planning pathway for synergistically enhancing multiple ESs through landscape pattern optimization.关键词
蓝绿空间/生态系统服务/权衡与协同/贝叶斯网络/景观格局Key words
blue-green space/ecosystem service/trade-off and synergy/Bayesian network/landscape pattern引用本文复制引用
杨建辉,刘俊辰,李钰琪,白晨明,王丁冉..基于贝叶斯网络的西安城市蓝绿空间生态系统服务权衡与协同[J].中国城市林业,2025,23(5):1-8,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3802603) （2022YFC3802603）
