中外医学研究2025，Vol.23Issue(31)：103-106,4.DOI:10.14033/j.cnki.cfmr.2025.31.028
构建脑卒中患者吞咽障碍症状加重的预测模型及护理对策分析
Construction of a Predictive Model for Worsening Swallowing Disorders in Stroke Patients and Analysis of Nursing Strategies
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To construct a predictive model for the aggravation of swallowing disorders in stroke patients and analyze corresponding nursing intervention strategies.Method:150 stroke patients with swallowing disorders who received treatment in Putian University Affiliated Hospital from January 2022 to December 2024 were selected.According to the Gugging Swallowing Screen score,the study subjects were divided into a mild to moderate group(n=105)and a severe group(n=45).Clinical data of patients was collected,and univariate analysis was conducted.Logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify independent risk factors for worsening swallowing disorders in stroke patients.The prediction model was constructed by using R software.The ROC curve was plotted to evaluate the discrimination of the model,and the correction and decision curves were used to test the prediction performance of the model.Result:The age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale(NIHSS)score of the severe group were significantly higher than those of the mild to moderate group,the serum albumin was significantly lower than that of the mild to moderate group,and the proportion of people with brainstem infarction and muscle strength grade≤3 was significantly lower than that of the mild to moderate group,with statistically significant difference(P<0.05).The results of multivariate logistic regression showed that age,brainstem infarction,NIHSS score,muscle strength grade,and serum albumin were independent risk factors for the aggravation of dysphagia symptoms in stroke patients,and the differences were statistically significant(P<0.05).The factors above were incorporated into the nomogram prediction model.The AUC of the ROC curve was 0.890(95%CI:0.830-0.950),and the calibration curve showed that the consistency between the predicted values of the nomogram and the actual values was good.When the risk threshold was>0.08,clinical net benefits could be provided.Conclusion:The predictive model based on age,brainstem infarction,NIHSS score,muscle strength grading,and serum albumin has good predictive value for the aggravation of swallowing disorders in stroke patients.It can help guide doctors to develop personalized treatment plans,reduce the risk of worsening swallowing disorders,and improve the treatment effect and quality of life of patients.关键词
脑卒中/吞咽障碍/预测模型/护理对策Key words
Stroke/Swallowing disorders/Predictive model/Nursing strategies引用本文复制引用
林丽霞,林碧娟..构建脑卒中患者吞咽障碍症状加重的预测模型及护理对策分析[J].中外医学研究,2025,23(31):103-106,4.基金项目
莆田学院校级科研项目(2022071) （2022071）
