中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(9)：1-15,15.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250901
大食物观下食物承载力结构性耦合、时空演化与驱动因素研究
THE STRUCTURAL COUPLING,TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND DRIVING FACTORS OF FOOD CARRYING CAPACITY UNDER THE VIEW OF BIG FOOD
摘要
Abstract
In order to objectively evaluate the structural coupling state of food carrying capacity and build an analysis framework of the structural coupling index system of food carrying capacity based on nutrients such as energy,fat and protein is constructed,providing scientific basis for China to achieve food security.Using the panel data of 329 prefecture level cities in China from 2000 to 2020,the distribution characteristics,temporal and spatial evolution and driving factors of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity under the macro food view were analyzed by using global Moran's I,Moran scatter diagram,Lisa agglomeration diagram and spatial Dubin model.The study found that:(1)The structural coupling index of food carrying capacity in prefecture level cities in China showed an overall upward trend,but the growth rate slowed down significantly,and there were regional differences.The structural coupling index of food carrying capacity in Central China and Northeast China was higher,while that in East China,South China,northwest and southwest China was lower,and North China was at the average level in China.(2)The structural coupling index of food carrying capacity of prefecture level cities in China showed positive spatial correlation and two pole agglomeration,and the phenomenon of high-value agglomeration was more obvious.HH concentrated in Northeast,North and central China;LL area was distributed in southwest,northwest and Yangtze River Delta.The spatial imbalance was significant,and the overall pattern was stable but partially dynamically adjusted,highlighting the characteristics of"high in the north and low in the south,and low-lying core urban agglomeration".(3)Grain production,meat production,proportion of labor population,urbanization rate and grain planting area promoted the increase of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity,while the resident population inhibited the growth of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity.In summary,the spatial-temporal characteristics of the structural coupling index of food carrying capacity in prefecture level cities in China are obvious.In order to ensure national food security,it is proposed to improve agricultural infrastructure,speed up the construction of high standard farmland,implement differentiated food carrying capacity policy,and control urban area while promote regional coordinated development.关键词
食物承载力/大食物观/结构性耦合/时空演化/空间杜宾模型Key words
food carrying capacity/big food view/structural coupling/spatiotemporal evolution/spatial dobbin model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王恒博,张启阳,胡颢瑜..大食物观下食物承载力结构性耦合、时空演化与驱动因素研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(9):1-15,15.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"西部生态脆弱区生态环境与社会经济发展结构性耦合及提升路径研究"(20BJY048) （20BJY048）
西安财经大学研究生创新基金一般项目"'双碳'目标下西部生态脆弱区碳承载力时空演化与驱动因素研究"(24YC008) （24YC008）
