中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(9)：30-42,13.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20250903
2000-2020年中国县域粮食单产的时空格局及其影响因素
SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERNS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF GRAIN YIELD IN CHINESE COUNTIES FROM 2000 TO 2020
摘要
Abstract
Grain yield is influenced by both the extent of cultivated land and grain yield per unit area.Under the premise that the cultivated land area is difficult to increase,it is crucial to study the temporal and spatial changes in grain yield and the influencing factors to ensure food security.Data on grain yield from 2000 to 2020 for 2 060 counties in China were selected.The Daniel trend analysis,standard deviation ellipse,gravity center model,spatial autocorrelation analysis,and geodetector were used to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of grain yield and the influencing factors at the county level in China in this study.The results showed that:(1)China's grain yield was low along the Hu Huangyong Line,increasing gradually towards the southeast and northwest.(2)Overall,the grain yield increased,although the rate of increase slowed down from 2000 to 2020.The northern region of China experienced faster growth than the southern region,particularly in the Inner Mongolia Plateau,Loess Plateau,northern North China Plain,and Xinjiang.(3)The center of grain yield shifted northwest,creating an"east-west"spatial distribution pattern characterized by unclear directionality and minimal differences in yield among various regions.High-value areas were concentrated in the Northeast Plain,North China Plain,Dongting Lake Plain,Poyang Lake Plain,Hexi Corridor,and Northwest Xinjiang;while low-value areas were centered in the middle of Inner Mongolia Plateau and Xizang Plateau.However,this spatial agglomeration trend had slightly weakened.(4)Precipitation and slope were significant factors affecting grain yield,whereas the impacts of fertilizer application and labor quantity on grain yield had gradually diminished.Socio-economic factors tended to reduce grain yield,while artificial inputs contributed significantly to its increase.Based on the identified spatio-temporal patterns of grain yield and their influencing factors,the government should develop grain production policies according to local conditions to improve grain yield.关键词
粮食单产/时空格局/影响因素/中国县域/粮食安全Key words
grain yield/spatio-temporal pattern/influencing factors/Chinese counties/grain security分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
谢坤,丁明军,李资华,肖雄..2000-2020年中国县域粮食单产的时空格局及其影响因素[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(9):30-42,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目支助项目"鄱阳湖地区耕地非粮化的过程机理及其对粮食产能的影响"(42161021) （42161021）
国家自然科学基金项目支助项目"新世纪以来鄱阳湖地区农村劳动力析出对多熟种植制度的影响"(41761020) （41761020）
江西省高校人文社会科学研究一般项目"'趋粮化'还是'非粮化':粮食主产区农户种粮行为研究"(JC23206) （JC23206）
