铁道科学与工程学报2025，Vol.22Issue(10)：4449-4462,14.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20250022
考虑不确定需求和新能源车购置及租赁的物流运输车队更新策略优化方法
Optimization of logistics transport fleet renewal strategies considering uncertain demand and new energy vehicle purchase and rental
摘要
Abstract
Promoting the electrification of traditional fuel-powered logistics vehicles aligns with major national strategic objectives and can help logistics firms reduce long-term operational costs.This study addressed the optimization of fleet renewal decisions for logistics companies under uncertain demand in a market environment where both the purchase and rental of new energy freight vehicles coexist.Demand uncertainty was modeled using discrete scenarios,and the optimization aimed to maximize total net profit over the planning period and the present value of the fleet's residual value at the end of the period.The model incorporated constraints on the budget for new energy vehicles and considered the inherent relationship between fleet composition at different time stages.An uncertain programming model was developed to guide fleet renewal under uncertain demand,incorporating both purchase and rental options for new energy vehicles.Optimization decisions include the annual purchase quantity of new energy vehicles,the sale of old vehicles,and the rental quantity of new energy vehicles based on demand fluctuations.The model was transformed into an equivalent mixed-integer linear programming formulation and solved using CPLEX.Case studies show that a well-planned electrification strategy can significantly reduce operating costs and carbon emissions compared to a fully fuel-based fleet,with operating costs decreasing by 36%and carbon emissions by 71%,respectively.Compared to strategies that rely solely on purchase,rental,or one-time full replacement,the hybrid purchase and rental strategy provide a 53%higher return.Furthermore,a mixed fleet of new energy and fuel vehicles allows for better utilization of the advantages of different vehicle types,leading to higher returns in short-term planning.Increasing the budget for purchasing new energy vehicles,lowering the rental coefficient,and shortening the rental periods all contribute to improved economic benefits in fleet renewal.The study offers theoretical support for logistics firms transitioning their fleets to electrification.关键词
不确定需求/运输车队/新能源车辆/购置/租赁/车队更新Key words
uncertain demand/transport fleet/new energy vehicles/purchase/rental/fleet renewal分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
王承娜,秦进,徐光明..考虑不确定需求和新能源车购置及租赁的物流运输车队更新策略优化方法[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2025,22(10):4449-4462,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2023YFB2504700) （2023YFB2504700）
湖南省自然科学基金资助项目(2022JJ30767) （2022JJ30767）
