大气科学2025，Vol.49Issue(5)：1495-1509,15.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2412.24030
SSP1-2.6"双碳"路径下不同土地利用变化对我国近地面气温的生物物理影响
Biogeophysical Impact of Different Land Use Changes on Near-Surface Air Temperature in China under the SSP1-2.6"Double Carbon"Pathway
摘要
Abstract
Land use and land cover changes(LULCC)have influenced climate patterns mainly through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes.However,the biogeophysical effects of LULCC on future air temperature in China remain unknown.Therefore,this study utilizes data from six models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to project the biogeophysical impacts of different LULCC scenarios from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)-SSP3-7.0 and SSP1-2.6-on near-surface air temperature in China under the same emissions scenario(SSP1-2.6)during the"double carbon"period.The study further quantitatively analyzes the contributing factors.Results indicate that(1)the main LULCC between the two scenarios during the SSP1-2.6"double carbon"period is forest cover:it increases in the south of the Qinling-Huaihe River region and decreases in the north,with greater differences during the carbon neutral period(-10％to 10％)than during the carbon peak period(-8％to 5％).Differences in the forest cover in western China are minimal.(2)On a national scale,its contribution to future warming during the carbon peak period is-5％,and it is greater than that during the carbon-neutral period(-1％).(3)This contribution exhibits regional disparities.In northern East China,there is a transition from a negative contribution during the carbon peak period(-3.2％)to a positive contribution during the carbon-neutral period(0.4％).This is attributed to the combined enhanced warming effects of ground heat fluxes,clear-sky longwave radiation,and sensible heat fluxes,as well as the enhanced cooling effects of surface albedo and latent heat fluxes.Southern East China exhibits negative contributions(-4.1％and-1.8％)throughout the"double carbon"period,mainly resulting from the cooling effects originating from cloud radiation.In western China,the positive contribution during the carbon peak period(4.9％)changes into a negative contribution during the carbon-neutral period(-1.8％),primarily due to the transition of warming effects from ground heat fluxes and clear-sky radiation to cooling effects.Overall,compared with the SSP1-2.6,the land use in the SSP3-7.0 generally exerts a cooling effect during the"double carbon"period under SSP1-2.6;however,regional disparities exist.关键词
CMIP6模式/土地利用模式比较计划(LUMIP)/森林覆盖率变化/近地面气温Key words
CMIP6 models/LUMIP(Land Use Model Intercomparison Project)/Forest cover change/Near-surface air temperature分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
韦苗,隋月,刘博..SSP1-2.6"双碳"路径下不同土地利用变化对我国近地面气温的生物物理影响[J].大气科学,2025,49(5):1495-1509,15.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目42305041,湖北省自然科学基金项目2020CFB331 the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 42305041),Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province(Grant 2020CFB331) （Grant 42305041）
