海南医科大学学报2025，Vol.31Issue(21)：1601-1609,9.DOI:10.13210/j.cnki.jhmu.20241211.001
2018～2022年海南岛肺结核时空聚集性分析
Spatial-temporal clustering of tuberculosis in Hainan Island from 2018 to 2022
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the spatial-temporal clustering and influencing factors of reported incidence of tuberculosis(TB)in Hainan Island from 2018 to 2022,explore the high-risk time and areas of TB in Hainan Island,and provide theoretical ba-sis for scientific prevention and control measures of TB.Methods:From the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Manage-ment System of China Disease Prevention and Control Information System,the data of reported cases of TB in Hainan Island from 2018 to 2022 were downloaded.ArcGIS 10.8 software was used to draw the ring map of the spatial-temporal distribution of TB in Hainan Island,and spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot spot analysis were conducted.Software SaTScan10.1.2 was used for spatial-temporal scan analysis.Factor detection and interaction detection were used to analyze the annual reported incidence of TB by geographical detector.Results:The reported incidence of TB in Hainan Island showed a downward trend from 2018 to 2022(χ2=437.00,P<0.001),and the average annual reported incidence rate was 87.39/100 000.Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I values were greater than 0,but it was not statistically significant(Z<1.96,P>0.05),which showed a random distribution.Local spatial autocorrelation and hot spot analysis showed that the hot spots of TB in Hainan Island were dis-tributed in Ledong,Lingshui,Wanning,Qiongzhong,Wuzhishan,Baoting,and Sanya.Spatial and temporal scanning showed that there were obvious spatial clustering areas of reported incidence of TB,and 3 spatial-temporal clustering areas were detected,with statistical significance(P<0.05),which were concentrated in the central and southern areas of Hainan Island.The results of factor detection showed that the q value of each factor from high to low was O3(0.703),PM10(0.543),PM2.5(0.396),per capita GDP(0.359),CO(0.309),population density(0.226),SO2(0.178),NO2(0.172).The interaction between O3 and population density had the highest explanatory power(0.894)on the spatial stratification of TB.The spatial variation of TB incidence was not determined by a single factor,but depended more on the comprehensive effect of multiple factors.Conclusion:The reported inci-dence of TB in Hainan Island from 2018 to 2022 has an obvious spatial-temporal clustering,which is distributed in Li and Miao ethnic areas and the central and southern mountainous areas.Exposure to air pollutants,less developed areas,and concentrated floating population affect the incidence of TB.The construction of TB prevention and control system should be improved,and the education activities of TB prevention and control knowledge should be strengthened.It is necessary to establish a database and in-formation sharing platform for floating population to grasp the epidemic situation of TB.In order to strengthen TB surveillance,TB surveillance sentinel sites should be set up,focusing on the minority and floating population concentrated areas.关键词
肺结核/时空聚集性/防治/海南岛Key words
Tuberculosis/Spatial-temporal clustering/Prevention and control/Hainan Island分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
崔馨禄,陈成江,李卫霞,罗兴雄,孟纬纬,陆晶晶,高志东,曹莉..2018～2022年海南岛肺结核时空聚集性分析[J].海南医科大学学报,2025,31(21):1601-1609,9.基金项目
This study was supported by the Key R&D Program of Hainan Province(ZDYF2021GXJS018) 海南省重点研发计划项目(ZDYF2021GXJS018) （ZDYF2021GXJS018）
