气象科学2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：490-503,14.DOI:10.12306/jms2023.0063
多个历时的异常降水的重现期计算方法研究
Study of calculation method of return period of multi-duration abnormal precipitation
摘要
Abstract
On 11 August,2020,the National Meteorological Station in Lushan County,Sichuan Province,experienced an extremely abnormal precipitation event that far exceeded historical averages.The 24-hour rainfall reached 425.7 mm,ranking second in historical records for Sichuan Province.Within a 3-hour span,rainfall reached 348.6 mm,causing significant meteorological disasters.To accurately assess the impact of this rainfall event in the local history,annual maximum rainfall data spanning 42 years(1980-2021)with various durations(60,120,180,360,720,1 440 minutes)were collected from the Lushan National Meteorological Station.Employing a combination of chi-square test sorting,mean square error,residual sum of squares,and Wasserstein distance,as evaluation criteria,while considering the consistency of precipitation distributions across different durations,the optimal distribution,Johnsonsb distribution,were selected from among 80 probability density distribution functions.Reoccurrence period wasinferred by using the inverse function of the distribution.Results indicate that this method,when compared to commonly used limited distributions such as Pearson TypeⅢ,Gumbel,and Gamma distributions in hydrological and meteorological contexts,minimized overall mathematical fitting errors and considered engineering practicability.Particularly during anomalous precipitation events,the computed reoccurrence periods were more in line with actual scenarios.Through comparison across counties including Yucheng,Tianquan,Baoxing,and Shimian,the reoccurrence periods calculated by using this method effectively reflected precipitation reoccurrence characteristics.关键词
概率分布/重现期/数学误差/Wasserstein距离Key words
probability distribution/return period/mathematical error/Wasserstein distance分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
钱正迪,周学云,张鹤鸣,伏薇,陈泓吾..多个历时的异常降水的重现期计算方法研究[J].气象科学,2025,45(4):490-503,14.基金项目
四川省科技计划资助项目(2023YFS0434) （2023YFS0434）
四川省科技计划资助项目(2022YFS0544) （2022YFS0544）
中国气象局西南区域气象中心川藏铁路气象服务技术创新团队基金(XNQYCXTD202201) （XNQYCXTD202201）
