气象科学2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：525-534,10.DOI:10.12306/2025jms.0019
对流尺度集合预报初值扰动技术及系统应用研究进展
Advances in initial perturbation techniques and systemic application research for convective-scale ensemble prediction
摘要
Abstract
Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction System(CEPS),characterized by its high spatiotemporal resolution and capability to provide probabilistic forecasts,plays a critical role in improving the predictability of severe convective weather.Currently,CEPS has become a key focus in operational center development,with initial perturbation methods being one of the challenging technical issues.Primary operational initial perturbation schemes include dynamic downscaling,ensemble data assimilation,and singular vectors.Some researchers have also adapted mesoscale ensemble forecast perturbation methods such as the BGM(Breeding of Growing Modes)scheme and hybrid perturbation approaches to CEPS.However,existing methodologies have yet to account for rapidly amplified nonlinear perturbations.The development of initial perturbation methods capable of characterizing nonlinear growth dynamics in initial fields represents a pivotal direction for CEPS innovation.Some international numerical weather prediction centers and institutions have successfully implemented CEPS in operational weather forecasting.Evaluations of CEPS performance in forecasting heavy precipitation events reveal its effectiveness in providing probabilistic predictions for extreme rainfall magnitudes,offering valuable insights into the extremity of storm events.However,ensemble mean forecasts demonstrate limited utility,indicating substantial room for improvement in predicting intense precipitation.Advancements in Artificial Intelligence(AI)technology present new opportunities for advancing ensemble forecasting.Firstly,ensemble forecasts provide high-quality datasets for training AI models.Secondly,AI-driven ensemble forecasting frameworks could circumvent the high energy consumption inherent in traditional ensemble methods.Furthermore,AI-based post-processing of ensemble forecast outputs could enhance operational efficiency.As numerical weather prediction progresses toward finer precision,the integration of CEPS with AI technologies is poised to become a vital future development direction.关键词
对流尺度/集合预报/强对流/初值扰动Key words
convective-scale/ensemble forecast/severe convective weather/initial perturbation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王静,张楠,李红祺,杨晓君,韩雨盟,王婧卓,刘昕..对流尺度集合预报初值扰动技术及系统应用研究进展[J].气象科学,2025,45(4):525-534,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(42205166 （）
42475167) （）
中国气象局气象能力联合提升研究专项(24NLTSQ010) （24NLTSQ010）
中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN05) （CMA2024QN05）
