森林工程2025，Vol.41Issue(6)：1116-1126,11.DOI:10.7525/j.issn.1006-8023.2025.06.002
黑龙江省土地利用监测及预测
Land Use Monitoring and Forecasting in Heilongjiang Province
摘要
Abstract
Land is an indispensable part of human life.The analysis of land use status is helpful to deeply understand the relationship between environmental conditions and economic development,and to achieve a more reasonable land use model.Predicting future land use will help improve the sustainable management of land resources and provide a sci-entific basis for assessing carbon potential.Taking Heilongjiang Province as the research area,the current situation of land use in Heilongjiang Province from 2000 to 2020 was analyzed,and the patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model coupled with the long short-term memory(LSTM)model was adopted to simulate and predict the land use situation in Heilongjiang Province in 2030.The results showed that:1)The Kappa coefficient for verifying the PLUS-LSTM model was 0.878.The relative simulation errors of the six land types(cultivated land,forest land,grass-land,water area,construction land,and unused land)were all less than 15%.Compared with the traditional model,it had higher accuracy and can be used to simulate the land use situation in Heilongjiang Province in 2030.2)Compared with 2020,the area of forest land,grassland,water area,and construction land in Heilongjiang Province would in-crease in 2030.Among them,the change rate of construction land was the highest,8.57%;the area of forest land in-creased by 2 584.26 km²,mainly in the central region;the expansion of grassland was mainly in the southwest.The area of cultivated land and unused land decreased,and the unused land changed the most,with a change rate of 29.68%.关键词
黑龙江省/土地利用/监测/预报/长短期记忆模型(LSTM)Key words
Heilongjiang Province/land utilization/monitoring/forecasting/long short-term memory model(LSTM)分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李浩南,于颖,杨曦光,范文义..黑龙江省土地利用监测及预测[J].森林工程,2025,41(6):1116-1126,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(32471855) （32471855）
东北林业大学碳中和专项科学基金项目(HFW220100054). （HFW220100054）
