水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(10)：17-30,14.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.002
基于风险传递网络的台风风暴潮灾害链风险评价
Risk assessment for the typhoon-storm surge-flood-dike burst disaster chain based on risk-transmission network
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In recent years,frequent typhoon strikes on coastal areas have caused severe casualties,economic losses and environmental degradation.Therefore,it is important to explore the formation mechanism and risk assessment of the easily occurring typhoon disaster chain to provide scientific support for flood control and tide prevention in coastal cities.[Methods]Focus is paid on a typical"typhoon-storm surge-flood-dike burst"(TSFD)disaster chain event,conducting an evolution analysis of the disaster chain mechanism based on the risk transmission and response among various disasters.A risk transmission network structure is established for the TSFD disaster chain,and a risk assessment model for the TSFD disaster chain is constructed using Bayesian theory.This model is applied in Zhuhai,Zhongshan,Jiangmen,and Foshan in Guangdong Province to simulate and analyze the distribution of TSFD disaster chain risk under the three typical typhoon scenarios.[Results]The result show that coastal areas are at higher risk of TSFD disaster chain than inland regions.When a landing-type typhoon with a wind force above Category 16 occurs,the total area of"high"and"medium"risk zones in the study area accounts for 29.9％of the total,with"high"risk zones mainly concentrating in the coastal areas of Zhuhai and Zhongshan,and"medium"risk zones mainly distributing in the east-central part of Foshan and the southern part of Jiangmen.[Conclusion]The result indicate that:under different typhoon scenarios,typhoon intensity change has a greater impact on storm surge and dike burst than flood,while the impact of typhoon path change on flood and dike burst is greater than that of storm surge.Research result can provide valuable references for the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity building in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.关键词
台风风暴潮/灾害链/风险评价/贝叶斯网络/广东省/气候变化/城市防洪/降雨Key words
typhoon storm surge/disaster chain/risk assessment/Bayesian network/Guangdong Province/climate change/urban flood control/rainfall分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
谭心如,王婷,黄显峰,游进军,田雨,王文睿..基于风险传递网络的台风风暴潮灾害链风险评价[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(10):17-30,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3001000) （2021YFC3001000）
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52209042) （52209042）
国家自然科学基金项目(52079143) （52079143）
