水利水电技术（中英文）2025，Vol.56Issue(10)：165-178,14.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.013
陕北-关中-陕南丰枯遭遇时空演变及其对水网布局的影响
Spatiotemporal evolution of wet-dry encounters in Northern,Central,and Southern Shaanxi and their effects on water network layout
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]In a changing environment,the wet-dry encounter relationships between adjacent regions may undergo significant changes,profoundly affecting the implementation and operation of regional water diversion projects.However,the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of wet-dry encounters and their potential effects on water network layout remain unclear,necessitating in-depth research.[Methods]Taking the three major regions of Northern,Central,and Southern Shaanxi as the study areas,a two-dimensional joint distribution model was established based on the Copula function to quantify the occurrence probabilities of wet-dry encounter events.The main factors driving dynamic changes were investigated,and the future evolution trends of wet-dry encounters under a moderate emission scenario were projected.Furthermore,the potential effects on water network layout were assessed,and optimization recommendations were provided.[Results]The result showed that:(1)the probability of synchronous wet-dry encounters was highest between Central and Southern Shaanxi at 60.71％,while it was lowest between Northern and Southern Shaanxi at 44.93％.In terms of water diversion,the probability of favorable water diversion conditions in the three joint regions(Central-Southern Shaanxi,Northern-Central Shaanxi,and Northern-Southern Shaanxi)was approximately 45％.(2)The Arctic Oscillation was the dominant teleconnection factor driving the changes in wet-dry encounters between Central-Northern Shaanxi and Northern-Southern Shaanxi,followed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.(3)Under the future moderate emission scenario,the probability of favorable water diversion conditions in Central-Southern Shaanxi and Northern-Central Shaanxi was projected to increase by 7.31％and 2.58％,respectively,while the probability of simultaneous drought was expected to decrease by 3.08％and 1.32％,respectively.[Conclusion]Significant spatiotemporal variations are observed in the wet-dry encounter relationships among Central,Northern,and Southern Shaanxi under changing environmental conditions.Under the future moderate emission scenario,the suitability for water diversion from Southern to Central Shaanxi is expected to improve,which can help alleviate water shortages in Central Shaanxi to some extent.However,simultaneous drought conditions may exacerbate regional water resource pressure.To achieve more efficient water resource allocation,it is essential to strengthen water replenishment capacity in Southern Shaanxi while improving water diversion from the Yellow River,backup water sources,and strategic reserve facilities in Central and Northern Shaanxi to cope with the uncertainties and challenges posed by future climate change.关键词
丰枯遭遇/Copula函数/CMIP6/动态变化/遥相关因子/水网/影响因素Key words
wet-dry encounters/Copula function/CMIP6/dynamic changes/teleconnection factors/water network/influencing factors分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
吴茂琳,黄生志,周伟,黄强..陕北-关中-陕南丰枯遭遇时空演变及其对水网布局的影响[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2025,56(10):165-178,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52279026) （52279026）
