水资源与水工程学报2025，Vol.36Issue(5)：74-83,10.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2025.05.09
基于极端降水指数法的极端降水事件致灾风险评估
Disaster risk assessment of extreme precipitation events based on extreme precipitation indices
摘要
Abstract
To reveal the disaster-causing characteristics of extreme precipitation and its spatial risk distri-bution,a case study of the Fuhuan River Basin in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River was conduc-ted.Based on daily gridded precipitation data from 1961 to 2022,nine extreme precipitation indices(PRCPTOT,Rx1day,Rx5day,SDII,R10,R20,R95p,R99p,and CWD)were calculated.Then,their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics were analyzed by Mann-Kendall abrupt change and trend tests,the moving T-test,and Theil-Sen estimator.Principal component analysis(PCA)was used to ex-tract comprehensive indicators of extreme precipitation,run theory was employed to identify the disaster-causing duration and severity of extreme precipitation events,and non-dominated sorting was applied to classify risk levels in the basin.The results indicate that except Rx5day,all indices showed an increasing trend over time,with intensity indices exhibiting a spatial pattern of"increase in the downstream but de-crease in the upstream".The cumulative contribution rate of the first two principal components exceeded 77%,demonstrating an excellent performance on characterizing multidimensional features of extreme pre-cipitation with integrated information of severity,frequency,and persistence.A"high-severity-long-du-ration"disaster pattern was pronounced in the downstream region,resulting in prominent risk.The disas-ter-causing risk was primarily influenced by frequent and accumulative moderate-severity precipitation processes characterized by indices such as Rx5day,R95p,and R20.The assessment framework devel-oped in this study comprehensively reflects the prolonged and cumulative effects of disasters caused by ex-treme precipitation,providing a scientific support for watershed-scale flood risk management.关键词
极端降水/主成分分析/游程理论/非支配排序/致灾风险/府澴河流域Key words
extreme precipitation/principal component analysis/run theory/non-dominated sorting/disaster risk/the Fuhuan River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
喻丹,黄俊雄,李忠安,谈新,董晓华,王亦洲,魏冲,彭涛,刘冀..基于极端降水指数法的极端降水事件致灾风险评估[J].水资源与水工程学报,2025,36(5):74-83,10.基金项目
湖北省自然科学基金项目(2024AFD212) （2024AFD212）
国家自然科学基金项目(42401030、52109058) （42401030、52109058）
