中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(8)：40-51,12.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250103
随机尖点突变的区块链碳交易反合作治理研究
Anti-cooperative governance in blockchain carbon trading based on stochastic cusp catastrophe theory
摘要
Abstract
Effectively managing anti-cooperative behavior within blockchain-based carbon trading is essential for strengthening carbon trading alliances and expediting the achievement of"dual carbon"goals in China.This study,from the perspective of trading alliances,focuses on the cooperation strategies of emissions-regulated firms.Using stochastic evolutionary modeling and cusp catastrophe theory,this study constructed a stochastic cusp catastrophe model to examine the progression of anti-cooperative behavior among firms in block-chain carbon trading.Furthermore,the study introduced resilience theory to assess system robustness under parameter variations such as carbon price and blockchain costs.Numerical simulations were conducted to analyze the impact of these variations on resilience,pro-viding potential governance pathways for curbing anti-cooperative behavior.The findings indicated that:① The stochastic cusp catastro-phe model effectively explained anti-cooperative behavior in blockchain carbon trading.Sudden shifts between cooperative and anti-co-operative states were driven by borderline of the catastrophe set.Through regulatory adjustment of key parameters,the government could steer the system away from catastrophe set,thereby achieving anti-cooperative behavior governance.② Greater system resilience correlated with higher robustness,yet resilience and robustness could be inversely related under specific conditions.The critical point of catastrophe corresponded to the extremum point of resilience.③ Simulation results revealed that variations in system parameters yielded differing resilience trajectories,clarifying levels of system cusp catastrophe.Changes in carbon prices,government subsidies,and additional loss factors produced a V-shaped resilience trajectory,with a critical catastrophe window suggesting that short-term ad-justments could effectively achieve anti-cooperative behavior governance.Meanwhile,the resilience trajectory related to operating costs showed a U-shaped trajectory,indicating a long-term cumulative effect.Thus,continuous policy intervention was needed to sustain sys-tem stability.This analysis provides a detailed examination of the catastrophe characteristics of different system parameters in block-chain carbon trading based on anti-cooperative behavior.Through simulation analysis,this study proposes targeted anti-cooperative gov-ernance strategies,offering theoretical support for policy formulation with significant theoretical and practical value.关键词
碳交易市场/尖点突变/弹性/演化博弈Key words
carbon trading market/cusp catastrophe/resilience/evolutionary game分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
江涛,刘晟华,覃琼霞..随机尖点突变的区块链碳交易反合作治理研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(8):40-51,12.基金项目
浙江省自然科学基金项目"基于区块链技术的产品标准链创新机制研究"(批准号:LY21G020005) （批准号:LY21G020005）
国家社会科学基金重点项目"数字贸易壁垒测度方法创新研究"(批准号:24AGJ007) （批准号:24AGJ007）
浙江省第五次全国经济普查立项课题"山区26县生态工业高质量发展研究"(批准号:ZJWJP09). （批准号:ZJWJP09）
