中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(8)：65-75,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250112
碳排放权交易政策对企业进入与退出控排行业的影响
Impact of carbon emissions trading policy on enterprise entry and exit in emission-regulated industries
摘要
Abstract
The entry and exit behaviors of enterprises in emission-regulated industries are critical for assessing whether China's car-bon emission trading policy can effectively force corporate low-carbon transitions.However,existing literature has rarely addressed this issue.To bridge this gap,this study evaluated the impact of the carbon emission trading policy on enterprise entry and exit in emission-regulated industries using the difference-in-differences method based on Chinese business enterprise entry-exit data from 2010 to 2022.The results showed that:① Overall,the carbon emission trading policy significantly suppressed both enterprise entry into and exit from emission-regulated industries.② Dynamic analysis showed that in the short term,the policy had no significant impact on enterprise en-try but promoted exit from emission-regulated industries,while in the long term,the policy simultaneously inhibited enterprise entry and exit.③ Mechanism analysis showed that the carbon emission trading policy had heterogeneous impacts on enterprise entry and exit from emission-regulated industries in the short and long term through compliance cost constraints in the role of the government,price signals in the role of the market,and the Porter Effect.On the one hand,in the short run,the policy facilitated enterprise exit from the emission-regulated industries through compliance cost constraints.In the long run,the policy could raise entering technological barriers for potential entrants,inhibiting their entry,and offset compliance cost constraints for incumbent enterprises,inhibiting their exit from emission-regulated industries through the Porter Effect.On the other hand,in the short term,low carbon price signals indicated by this policy could reduce potential enterprises'expected revenue,inhibiting their entry into emission-regulated industries,and reduce the emission reduction costs of incumbent enterprises,inhibiting their exit from the industries.In contrast,high carbon price signals could increase the expected revenue of potential enterprises,promoting their entry,and increase the emission reduction costs of incumbent en-terprises,promoting their exit.In the long run,regardless of whether the carbon prices were low or high,the policy could raise the tech-nological barriers for potential enterprises through the Porter Effect,inhibiting their entry into emission-regulated industries,and offset the emission reduction costs of incumbent enterprises,inhibiting their exit.④ Further analysis showed that the policy not only failed to produce the carbon haven effect of enterprises moving to non-pilot regions but also promoted the transformation of industrial structure in a green and low-carbon direction.关键词
碳排放权交易/企业进入与退出/政府作用/市场作用Key words
carbon emissions trading/enterprise entry and exit/role of government/role of market分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
曹翔,邱丽..碳排放权交易政策对企业进入与退出控排行业的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(8):65-75,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金地区项目"能源空间错配的经济效应与碳排放效应及其纠正机制"(批准号:71963009) （批准号:71963009）
海南省自然科学基金项目"环境成本上升对贸易转型升级与绿色发展的影响评估——兼论对海南自由贸易港建设的启示"(批准号:722RC635). （批准号:722RC635）
