中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(8)：76-91,16.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250106
中国粮食主产区农业源温室气体排放核算、时空特征与脱钩水平
Accounting,spatiotemporal characteristics,and decoupling levels of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in China's main grain-producing areas
摘要
Abstract
The reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions in main grain-producing areas is of great significance to achieving green and low-carbon development in China's agricultural sector.This study employed the emission inventory method to quantify agricultural GHG emissions in China's main grain-producing areas from 2003 to 2022.Kernel density estimation,spatial hot spot analysis,and the stan-dard deviational ellipse of the gravity center were used to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity and evolutionary traits of emissions.This study also constructed a relationship matrix between agricultural GHG emissions and the output value of agriculture and animal husbandry based on decoupling theory.The results showed that:① The total volume of agricultural GHG emissions in China's main grain-producing ar-eas experienced a fluctuating downward trend throughout the study period,passing through four distinct stages:continuous rapid increase,slight and stable increase,rapid decrease,and basic stability.② Among the types of agricultural GHG emissions,methane(CH4)emissions were found to constitute the largest proportion,followed by nitrous oxide(N2O)emissions,and carbon dioxide(CO2)emissions accounted for the smallest proportion.③ Spatial heterogeneity characterized the emissions across the main grain-producing areas,where Shandong,Sich-uan,and Hunan consistently reported high emissions levels,whereas Liaoning and Jilin had relatively lower emissions.During the study peri-od,the number of high-emission provinces gradually decreased,with Henan,Sichuan,and Hunan showing the most significant emission re-ductions.Conversely,the number of low-emission provinces gradually increased,leading to a narrowing of the emission gap between different provinces.④ The distribution of high-emission hot spots initially contracted and then stabilized,while the cold spots initially expanded and subsequently stabilized.⑤ The standard deviational ellipse of the spatial distribution of emissions indicated a trend of westward movement with a slight northern shift,suggesting an expanding range of spatial distribution.⑥ The relationship between agricultural GHG emissions and the output value of agriculture and animal husbandry varied across provinces,with most clustering in the change of"high output-high emission"and"low output-low emission"quadrants.The findings of this study hold substantial value for understanding the current status and characteristics of spatiotemporal heterogeneity of agricultural GHG emissions in China's main grain-producing areas.The study is helpful to further understand the relationship between agricultural GHG emissions and economic growth in the agricultural sector and can provide a research reference for the sector to formulate GHG emission reduction policies and measures.关键词
农业源温室气体/时空异质性/演变特征/粮食主产区Key words
agricultural GHG emission/spatiotemporal heterogeneity/evolutionary characteristic/main grain-producing area分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱婧,何婧..中国粮食主产区农业源温室气体排放核算、时空特征与脱钩水平[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(8):76-91,16.基金项目
河北省社会科学发展研究课题"协同视角下河北省农业源减污降碳效应测度、机制与对策研究"(批准号:20230303001). （批准号:20230303001）
