中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(8)：92-101,10.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250107
退耕还林工程的碳泄漏效应
Carbon leakage effects of China's Sloping Land Conversion Project
摘要
Abstract
Under China's"dual carbon"goals,clarifying the extent of carbon leakage caused by the implementation of the Sloping Land Conversion Project(SLCP)has become a key issue in measuring the ecological benefits of the project.Existing studies have gener-ally overlooked the causal relationship between project implementation and carbon leakage,leading to biased estimations.Based on panel data from 31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 1997 to 2022 and a staggered difference-in-differences model,this study empirically tested the carbon leakage caused by the SLCP and explored the mechanisms of carbon leak-age at both extensive and intensive margins.The study found that:① During the sample period,there was a significant carbon leakage from the SLCP,a result that held true even after a series of robustness tests.In terms of quantity,the project implementation led to an 8.60%increase in carbon emissions from the cropping industry;the cumulative carbon leakage from the SLCP was 463.50 Mt,with a leakage rate of 13.65%.② From the perspective of its mechanisms,the SLCP mainly caused carbon leakage through the intensive mar-gin.The project led to a 3.50%increase in grain yield per unit area,primarily driven by the"input expansion"effect,especially from pesticides and irrigation,while the"efficiency improvement"effect was not evident.③ The degree of carbon leakage varied.In major grain-producing areas,the carbon leakage was most pronounced;the higher the efficiency of grain production and land quality,the low-er the degree of carbon leakage from the project.These research findings provide a scientific basis for a comprehensive understanding of carbon leakage in the SLCP and offer valuable insights for coordinating ecological protection and food security.关键词
退耕还林工程/碳泄漏/多期双重差分模型/粗放边界/集约边界Key words
Sloping Land Conversion Project(SLCP)/carbon leakage/staggered difference-in-differences model/extensive margin/in-tensive margin分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张寒,杨琰伦,杨红强..退耕还林工程的碳泄漏效应[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(8):92-101,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"深化集体林权制度改革背景下林业生态产品价值实现机制和生态补偿制度研究"(批准号:24&ZD108). （批准号:24&ZD108）
