中国兽医杂志2025，Vol.61Issue(11)：17-24,8.DOI:10.20157/j.cnki.zgsyzz.2025.11.003
气候变化对禽流感流行的影响及建模方法研究进展
Research Progress on the Impact of Climate Change on Avian Influenza Epidemics and Modeling Approaches
摘要
Abstract
Avian influenza(AI),caused by type A influenza viruses,is a major zoonotic disease that poses a serious threat to global public health security.In recent years,AI outbreaks have occurred frequently,showing increasing complexity and diversity in cross-regional transmission patterns.Climate change has been recognized as one of the primary driving factors influencing AI epidemics,as it can alter virus survival conditions,host migration routes,and activity ranges,thereby reshaping viral transmission dynamics.This review summarizes recent advances in understanding the impacts of climate change on AI,focusing on the effects of temperature,precipitation,humidity,wind speed,solar radiation,and extreme weather events on viral spread.Furthermore,it highlights quantitative modeling approaches exploring the relationship between climate variability and AI outbreaks,including statistical and machine learning models.Current research challenges are analyzed,and key directions for future studies are proposed.This review aims to provide theoretical support for further investigation into the climatic drivers of AI epidemics and to offer scientific guidance for developing more effective public health preparedness and response strategies.关键词
禽流感(AI)/气候变化/统计模型/机器学习Key words
avian influenza(AI)/climate change/statistical model/machine learning分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
吴若萱,苏颖辉,蒲娟,王璐..气候变化对禽流感流行的影响及建模方法研究进展[J].中国兽医杂志,2025,61(11):17-24,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2022YFF0802400) （2022YFF0802400）
