中国卫生事业管理2025，Vol.42Issue(10)：1088-1092,1098,6.
超额死亡的估算方法及应用进展研究
Researches on Excess Mortality Estimation Methods and Its Application Progress
摘要
Abstract
Objective To review the excess mortality estimation methods and their limitations in previous literature and sum-marize their applications across different fields to promote the development of standardized excess mortality modeling tools.Meth-ods A systematic review of publicly available studies on excess mortality estimation from PubMed,Web of Science,China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),and Wanfang Data Knowledge Service Platform was conducted.Results Common excess mor-tality estimation methods,such as rate difference method,linear regression,Poisson and negative binomial regression,ARIMA and SARIMA,and spline regression were summarized and compared in terms of their applicability and limitations.The application of excess mortality in influenza,COVID-19 pandemics,AIDS,and disaster events was summarized,and potential challenges in its future application were highlighted.Conclusion There are numerous excess mortality modeling methods.When applying them in specific fields,it is necessary to consider multiple factors such as disease mortality patterns and data availability for accurate ex-cess mortality estimation.关键词
超额死亡/死亡率预测/新型冠状病毒肺炎/流感Key words
excess mortality/mortality forecasting/COVID-19/Influenza分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
石钰霖,万霞..超额死亡的估算方法及应用进展研究[J].中国卫生事业管理,2025,42(10):1088-1092,1098,6.基金项目
呼吸和共病全国重点实验室开放课题基金"基于行政管理数据队列的主要慢性病综合共病模式研究"(2060204) （2060204）
美国中华医学基金会"强化中国卫生系统疾病负担研究和应用能力"(15-208) （15-208）
