中国卫生事业管理2025，Vol.42Issue(10)：1131-1134,4.
2025～2050年我国失能老人长期护理总费用及其占GDP比例预测
Predicting China's Long-Term Care Costs for the Disabled Elderly and Its Share of GDP from 2025 to 2050
摘要
Abstract
Objective To forecast the total number of disabled elderly aged 60 and over,long-term care costs for disabled elderly and the share of GDP from 2025 to 2050,and provide data support for the scientific formulation of policies to control total long-term care costs.Methods Using data collected from the fourth and the fifth survey of China Health and Retirement Longitu-dinal Study,Markov model was used to calculate the transition probability matrix among different disabled states in elderly.Based on the data in United Nations World Population Prospects in 2024,the total number of disabled elderly aged 60 and over in China was calculated.Based on the average annual salary of employees in China,the total cost of long-term care was predicted.Using ARIMA(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)Model,China's GDP was predicted,and the share of total long-term care expenditure to GDP was calculated.Results From 2025 to 2050,the number of disabled elderly aged 60 and over in China will in-crease from 42.0224 million to 90.3381 million.Under the medium plan,the total cost of long-term care for the disabled elderly will increase from 1685.522 billion yuan to 7586.739 billion yuan,and the proportion of long-term care costs to GDP will in-crease from 1.16％to 1.77％.Conclusion In the future,disability rates should be controlled through measures such as health management for the elderly.It is essential to promote the development of long-term care services for the elderly and reasonably control the proportion of total long-term care expenditure.关键词
失能老人/Markov模型/长期护理总费用/GDPKey words
disabled elderly/Markov model/long-term care cost/Gross Domestic Product分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张鑫,赵璐,吴群红..2025～2050年我国失能老人长期护理总费用及其占GDP比例预测[J].中国卫生事业管理,2025,42(10):1131-1134,4.基金项目
黑龙江省省属本科高校"优秀青年教师基础研究支持计划""以家庭需求为导向的黑龙江省社会长期护理保险筹资机制、执行阻碍及建制策略研究"(YQJH2023030) （YQJH2023030）
黑龙江省博士后资助项目"黑龙江省社会长期护理保险需求、筹资机制及制度建设策略研究"(LBH-Z23235) （LBH-Z23235）
