安徽农业科学2025，Vol.53Issue(22)：44-50,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2025.22.010
三江平原湿地演变及空间分布预测
Wetland Evolution and Spatial Distribution Prediction in the Sanjiang Plain
摘要
Abstract
The conflict between agricultural reclamation and wetland protection is intensifying increasingly.Understanding the evolution pattern of wetlands is of vital importance to the present and future impact on wetlands.This article selects the three-phase Landsat remote sensing ima-ges in 2000,2010,and 2020 of the Sanjiang Plain where agricultural development and wetland protection are complexly interlaced.Based on the object-oriented approach,the land use information is extracted,the evolution characteristics and patterns are analyzed,and the CA-Markov model is employed to simulate and predict the wetland spatial distribution changes in the Sanjiang Plain in 2030.Furthermore,the causes influ-encing the future development of the wetland are explored.The results showed that:The interpretation of remote sensing images for land use classifies the Sanjiang Plain into six land types:cultivated land,forest land,grassland,wetland,construction land,and unused land.From 2000 to 2020,the area of wetland in the Sanjiang Plain has decreased from 1 394 062.83 hm2 to 1 165 859.73 hm2.The evolution of the wet-lands shows different characteristics and patterns from 2000 to 2010 and from 2010 to 2020.During these two periods,the wetlands were con-verted into non-wetland types at the rates of 38.60%and 11.35%respectively,while the non-wetland types were transformed into wetland at the rates of 33.88%and 31.16%respectively.In accordance with the spatial evolution prediction model from 2010 to 2020 to 2030,the wet-land area continues to fall and will decline to 1 007 205.39 hectares by 2030,making up 9.27%of the total area of the San jiang Plain.Com-pared to the period from 2010 to 2020,the rate of the wetland being converted into cultivated land and construction land has slowed.It is shown that the evolution and development tendency of the wetland is influenced by the historical wetland protection and land use policies in the San jiang Plain.This study proposes that the current land use policies should be adjusted in line with the relevant requirements of the agricul-tural cultivated land protection policies.关键词
三江平原/湿地时空演变/空间分布预测Key words
Sanjiang Plain/Spatio-temporal evolution of wetland/Spatial distribution prediction分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
崔玲,罗春雨,李海燕,张弘强,曾星雨,周博奇,郭文栋,魏延军,吴若源,曲艺..三江平原湿地演变及空间分布预测[J].安徽农业科学,2025,53(22):44-50,7.基金项目
黑龙江省省属科研院所科研业务费项目(ZNJCB2023ZR04,ZNBZ2022ZR05,ZNBZ2020ZR06,CZKYF-2023-1-C023) （ZNJCB2023ZR04,ZNBZ2022ZR05,ZNBZ2020ZR06,CZKYF-2023-1-C023）
黑龙江省科学院科学研究基金项目(KY2023ZR02) （KY2023ZR02）
国家自然科学基金项目(42371287). （42371287）
