当代经济科学2025，Vol.47Issue(6)：133-146,14.DOI:10.20069/j.cnki.DJKX.202506010
地方政府专项债对民营企业投资的影响效应
Research on the Impact of Local Government Special Bonds on Private Enterprise Investment
摘要
Abstract
As an important component of the national economy,private enterprises play a leading role in fiscal contributions,technological innovation,and employment absorption,and their investment vitality is crucial for high-quality development.Special bonds are a new type of local government financing instrument that plays an important role in bridging funding gaps,stabilizing investment,and adjusting economic structure by leveraging fiscal funds.They provide important policy guarantees for guiding social capital and alleviating financing constraints for enterprises.Therefore,exploring how to effectively utilize local government special bonds to stimulate the investment vitality of private enterprises and form sustained investment momentum has become a core issue that urgently needs to be addressed in building a new development paradigm,promoting high-quality development,and modernizing the national governance system. Based on typical facts of private enterprise investment and external environmental uncertainty,this paper constructs a stochastic evolutionary game model to capture the strategic interactions between local governments and private enterprises.The dynamic process through which equilibrium is achieved under the influence of uncertain factors is analyzed,and the strategic choices made by private enterprises under the effect of special bonds are clarified.Empirical tests is subsequently conducted following numerical simulation.The research results indicate that local government special bonds effectively strengthen the market sensitivity and investment confidence of private enterprises,which are achieved through enhanced financial support and the mitigation of adverse selection problems caused by information asymmetry,thereby increasing their willingness to expand investment.Meanwhile,the evolution rate of local governments and private enterprises is influenced by the probability of initial strategy selection,and the speed at which private enterprise strategy selection evolves to the equilibrium point is faster than that of local governments.However,there is a certain degree of fluctuation in the strategic evolution process of both parties,which is attributed to the influence of stochastic disturbance factors.Furthermore,the investment decisions of private enterprises are constrained by cost considerations.When local governments choose to issue special bonds,the probability of investment strategies being adopted by private enterprises is observed to increase with the expansion of profit margins.It should be noted that the gradual reduction of costs accelerates the evolution of private enterprises towards investment decisions.Moreover,the increase in economic benefits plays a positive incentive role for local governments to issue special bonds and for private enterprises to adopt investment strategies. This study makes three marginal contributions.First,this paper employs an evolutionary game model to investigate the impact and logical mechanism of special bonds on the investment strategy choices of private enterprises.The dynamic evolution process of strategy choices of both parties in different scenarios is analyzed,and further examines the intrinsic relationship between the two through empirical analysis.Second,the stochastic perturbation term is introduced into the evolutionary game system to explore the evolution process of strategy selection among decision-making entities,providing new insights for studying the decision-making behavior of local governments and private enterprises under uncertainty.Third,it analyzes from a dynamic perspective how the issuance of local government special bonds drives private enterprise investment.By comparing and analyzing the changes in the evolution paths of local governments and private enterprises,policy recommendations are proposed to fully leverage the economic and social effects of special bonds. It is recommended to scientifically allocate quotas and improve issuance efficiency,standardize the investment direction of special bond funds and enhance transparency,improve the cooperative governance model between special bonds and social capital,deepen factor market reform and strengthen performance guidance,which can enhance the guiding function of special bond funds in private enterprise investment. This paper focuses on the key role of special bonds in stabilizing private enterprise investment.It not only provides theoretical support for optimizing policy design,guiding social capital,and stimulating investment vitality,but also offers practical guidance and policy inspiration for government departments to effectively use this policy instrument to promote high-quality economic development by leveraging its function of stabilizing investment,promoting transformation,and strengthening economic pull.关键词
地方政府专项债/民营企业投资/信贷可得性/经济收益/随机演化博弈Key words
local government special bonds/private enterprise investment/credit availability/economic benefits/stochastic evolutionary game引用本文复制引用
刘莉,任广乾..地方政府专项债对民营企业投资的影响效应[J].当代经济科学,2025,47(6):133-146,14.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究项目"政府会计对地方政府债务的影响机制及优化路径研究"(22YJC790082) （22YJC790082）
中国博士后科学基金第74批面上资助项目"政府激励行为下逆向混改对供应链韧性的影响研究"(2023M741072) （2023M741072）
中国博士后科学基金第17批特别资助项目"政府激励行为下国有资本参股对创新链构建的影响机理及优化研究"(2024T170248). （2024T170248）
