摘要
Abstract
Objective Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,this study aimed to analyze the current status of liver cirrhosis in China and predict future trends in incidence and mortality,providing data support for formulating effective prevention and treatment policies.Methods Data on the incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis in China from 1990 to 2021 were extracted from the GBD 2021 database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess trends in incidence and mortality.The age-period-cohort(APC)model was applied to decompose the effects of age,period,and cohort on liver cirrhosis.The Nordpred prediction model was utilized to fit trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and project disease burden changes from 2022 to 2045.Results In 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR)of liver cirrhosis in China was 720.21 per 100,000 population,and the age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR)was 7.69 per 100,000 population.From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR and ASMR of liver cirrhosis in China showed a gradual decline,with average annual percentage changes(AAPCs)of-0.13%(95%CI:-0.33 to-0.29)and-3.13%(95%CI:-3.41 to-2.85),respectively(P<0.001).The incidence of cirrhosis caused by non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)increased by an average of 0.74%annually(P<0.001).Hepatitis B virus(HBV)infection remained the primary cause of cirrhosis-related deaths.The mortality rate gradually increased with age,and the mortality rate was the highest in the 85-89 age group.Males exhibited a higher risk of incidence compared to females.Period effects indicated that the risk of cirrhosis incidence initially declined and then rose,while mortality risk consistently decreased.Cohort effect analysis revealed a declining trend in cirrhosis incidence risk with successive birth cohorts.Projections suggested continued reductions in cirrhosis incidence and mortality from 2022 to 2045.Conclusion The standardized incidence and mortality of liver cirrhosis in China showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2021.In particular,the mortality rate of cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus is significantly reduced,and the incidence of cirrhosis caused by nonalcoholic fatty liver disease is increasing year by year.The incidence rate peaked in the 20-24 age group,while the mortality rate gradually increased with age,especially in the 85-89 age group.The risk of male is generally higher than that of female.关键词
肝硬化/年龄-时期-队列模型/疾病负担/中国Key words
liver cirrhosis/age-period-cohort model/disease burden/China分类
医药卫生
