国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(11)：70-83,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.11.007
天然气供应短缺对国民经济关联损失评估研究
An assessment of national economic losses due to natural gas supply shortages
池立勋 1王庆生 2周淑慧 1许驰 2王雅菲 1张晗1
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油规划总院
- 2. 中国石油集团生产经营部
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Natural gas,a critical component of China's energy system,has become increasingly interconnected with multiple sectors and the cascading effects triggered by its supply shortages propagate through cross-sector interdependencies.To accurately evaluate the impacts of natural gas disruptions across industries,the paper constructs a coupled"dynamic-static"industrial linkage loss assessment model based on the inoperability input-output model,along with a three-dimensional analytical framework integrating"rigid dependency-economic loss-industrial resilience"and enables an analysis of the cascading impacts and dynamic propagation processes resulting from natural gas import disruptions on both the national economy and individual sectors.Findings reveal that the effects of natural gas supply disruptions exhibit distinct stratification across industries.Such high-sensitivity sectors as natural gas extraction,gas supply,and chemical production display extreme inoperability and low resilience,categorizing them as"rigidly vulnerable".Moderately sensitive sectors including construction and transportation,demonstrate certain systemic adjustment capacities.In contrast,such low-sensitivity sectors as agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,and light manufacturing show minimal dependency on natural gas and strong resilience.Based on economic loss severity and resilience indicators,it classifies industries into such four types as high-loss/high-resilience,high-loss/low-resilience,low-loss/low-resilience,and low-loss/high-resilience sectors and proposes tailored strategies reducing the natural gas supply on the consumption side.关键词
投入产出模型/动态不可操作性/天然气产业链/供应短缺/经济损失/韧性Key words
input-output model/dynamic inoperability/natural gas industry chain/supply shortages/economic losses/resilience分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
池立勋,王庆生,周淑慧,许驰,王雅菲,张晗..天然气供应短缺对国民经济关联损失评估研究[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(11):70-83,14.
