生态与农村环境学报2025，Vol.41Issue(11)：1431-1440,10.DOI:10.19741/j.issn.1673-4831.2025.0762
"精确"假象与可靠决策:土壤污染调查数据的描述性统计与地统计插值稳定性对比研究
Precision Illusion and Reliable Decision-making:A Comparative Study of Stability between Descriptive Statistics and Geostatistical Interpolation in Soil Pollution Investigation Data
摘要
Abstract
Accurate assessment of soil contamination forms the scientific basis for risk management and remediation strate-gies at industrial sites.Spatial interpolation techniques,particularly kriging,are widely used today as they effectively visu-alize contamination distributions.These methods exhibit limited stability owing to their strong dependence on sampling strategies.Based on two independent sampling campaigns conducted on the same site(with 229 and 116 sampling points,respectively),this study systematically compared the stability differences between statistical analysis and spatial character-ization results for arsenic contamination.The results demonstrate that key statistical parameters,particularly the 95％up-per confidence limit(95％UCL)of the mean,the median,and the 95th percentile,exhibited high stability with relative deviations generally below 15％.The 95％UCL of the mean demonstrated remarkable stability,with a relative deviation of less than 5％,confirming its strong suitability for risk assessment applications.In contrast,the results obtained through Ordinary Kriging interpolation displayed poor stability.The delineation of contamination boundaries,identification of hots-pot distributions,and quantification of risk-exceeding zones displayed marked inconsistencies compared to the established control threshold.This instability was particularly pronounced in contexts characterized by weak spatial autocorrelation,as indicated by nugget-to-sill ratios close to 1,where the interpolation results reflected the spatial distribution of sampling points rather than the true contamination pattern.The study warns that relying solely on spatial interpolation risks flawed remediation decisions,causing either excessive or inadequate remediation efforts.The study advocated for an integrated as-sessment framework that prioritizes rigorous statistical parameters as its foundation,complemented by spatial trend visual-ization and systematic uncertainty quantification.These findings can strengthen contamination assessment reliability and decision-making rigor,guiding next-generation site investigation technologies.关键词
土壤污染评估/统计分析/地统计插值/稳定性/决策框架Key words
soil contamination assessment/statistical analysis/spatial interpolation/stability/decision-making frame-work分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
陈樯,杨璐,盛峰,祝欣,张晓东,芦圆圆,龙涛.."精确"假象与可靠决策:土壤污染调查数据的描述性统计与地统计插值稳定性对比研究[J].生态与农村环境学报,2025,41(11):1431-1440,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3713201) （2024YFC3713201）
深圳市承接"场地土壤环境风险评估方法和基准"的产业化应用研究(20250901161335001) （20250901161335001）
建设用地土壤污染状况调查数据统计与分析技术指南(国家生态环境标准项目2021-82) （国家生态环境标准项目2021-82）
