中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(10)：78-91,14.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20251008
基于非平稳和作物系数的黄淮海平原冬小麦干旱精细化风险预估
RISK ASSESSMENT OF WINTER WHEAT DROUGHT IN THE HUANG-HUAI-HAI PLAIN BASED ON NONSTATIONARY AND CROP COEFFICIENTS
摘要
Abstract
Water is an important factor affecting the growth and development of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai(HHH)Plain,which is the main producing area and drought-prone area in China.Water deficit will seriously restrict the production of winter wheat.Estimating the drought risk of winter wheat in different growth stages in the future is the key to realize the rational distribution of winter wheat production and to prevent drought and disaster.Based on the NSPEI of daily winter wheat crop coefficient,this research analyzed the proportion of drought vulnerability in different growth periods,and used the weight of winter wheat risk,disaster susceptibility,disaster prevention and reduction ability,as well as the influence weights of drought in different growth periods on yield to build drought risk models of winter wheat in different growth periods.Temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of drought risk at different growth stages of winter wheat in HHH Plain in the past and future were analyzed.The results showed that drought of winter wheat at tillering stage had great effect on the final yield.The disaster vulnerability was mainly manifested as the law of decreasing from southwest to northeast,and the southeast of Henan,the northwest of Anhui and the central and northern of Hebei were more prone to disaster.The overall risk decreased from west to east,and the drought risk index was relatively large at sowing stage and tillering stage.The ability of disaster prevention and mitigation decreased gradually from southwest to northeast,and the high value center was in the southwest of the HHH Plain.Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,the overall drought risk of western Henan province and central and northern Hebei province in the future was in the high risk range,and the overall drought risk at the end of the SSP2-4.5 scenario was greater than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.The drought risk of winter wheat at tillering stage under SSP5-8.5 was obviously stronger than that at other growth stages.Therefore,it is essential to establish a drought risk prediction model for different growth stages of winter wheat in the HHH Plain under different scenarios,achieve a refined evaluation of the spatial distribution pattern of drought risk in each growth stage of winter wheat,so as to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for accurate monitoring and risk prevention of winter wheat drought in the HHH Plain in the future.关键词
NSPEI-kc/时空特征/干旱脆弱性/干旱风险/黄淮海平原Key words
NSPEI-kc/spatio-temporal characteristics/drought vulnerability/drought risk/Huang-Huai-Hai Plain分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
姚蕊,陈文卉,孙鹏,苑倩玉..基于非平稳和作物系数的黄淮海平原冬小麦干旱精细化风险预估[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(10):78-91,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"基于干旱传播过程的农业干旱动态监测与致灾机理研究"(42271037) （42271037）
水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室开放基金"耦合物理机制和深度学习的流域洪涝模型与不确定性研究"(HYMED202408) （HYMED202408）
安徽省重点研究与开发计划项目"淮河流域冬小麦干旱监测预警关键技术与应用"(2022m07020011) （2022m07020011）
安徽省自然科学基金优青项目"基于水分传递过程的冬小麦干旱致灾机制研究"(2108085Y13) （2108085Y13）
