中国农业资源与区划2025，Vol.46Issue(10)：107-118,12.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20251010
未来气候情景下黑龙江农业气候生产潜力时空变化趋势及影响因素分析
SPATIOTEMPORAL VARIATION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURE CLIMATIC PRODUCTION POTENTIAL IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS
摘要
Abstract
The intensification of climate change have complex impacts on crop growth and yield.Heilongjiang province is one of the major grain producing areas in China,and there is controversy over the impact of climate change on its climate production potential(CPP).Therefore,it is necessary to explore the changes in future CPP and the impact of climate factors.The GAZE model was employed to simulate the CPP of maize,soybean,and rice under four future scenarios(2020-2100)(SP245,SSP434,SSP460,and SSP585),and MK trend analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to explore the spatiotemporal trend in CPP and the impact of climatic factors(temperature and rainfall)on CPP.The results showed that:(1)Under the four future scenarios,the CPP in Heilongjiang province showed an increasing trend over time,with an average increase of 5.7%、15.6%、16.5%and 10.2%in each scenario.In terms of space,CPP had a spatial distribution of high in the east and low in the west,with a significantly low CPP in the southwest.(2)Temperature would increase by an average of 2.4℃ in the next 80 years,showing a spatial distribution of high in the south and low in the north.Rainfall would increase by an average of 25 mm,showing a spatial distribution of high in the east and low in the west,and its inter-annual fluctuation and increase would be drastic,with a maximum increase and decrease of 64%and of 30%respectively.(3)Under the four scenarios,the temperature and rainfall significantly increased the CPP of 67.7%and 76.9%of cropland in Heilongjiang province under four scenarios,while the areas negatively affected were relatively small and mainly concentrated in the southwestern region with high temperature and low rainfall.The positive effect of temperature on CPP depended on sufficient rainfall,and an increase in temperature could have a negative impact on CPP when rainfall was insufficient.Overall,the CPP in Heilongjiang province will increase in the future,while the CPP in the western region was relatively low,negatively affected by high temperature and low rainfall.In this regard,special attention can be paid to areas with water scarcity,and effective water resource management and utilization strategies may improve CPP in western regions and achieve sustainable development of agriculture in Heilongjiang province.关键词
黑龙江/气候生产潜力/气候变化/未来气候/农作物Key words
Heilongjiang/climate production potential/climate change/future climate/crops分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈心羽,郑兴明,林楠,陈思,武卓,郑佳,李鑫飚..未来气候情景下黑龙江农业气候生产潜力时空变化趋势及影响因素分析[J].中国农业资源与区划,2025,46(10):107-118,12.基金项目
国家重点研发项目"黑土地耕地质量多尺度天空地立体监测技术与预警系统"(2021YFD1500103) （2021YFD1500103）
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项"水稻土和白浆土质量与产能提升三江示范区"(XDA28100500) （XDA28100500）
国家自然科学基金"垄行结构农田表面土壤水分雷达遥感估算方法"(42371381) （42371381）
吉林省科技发展计划项目"农作物病虫害遥感监测与变量植保一体化无人机系统研发"(20210201044GX) （20210201044GX）
