中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(9)：11-23,13.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250310
能源三元目标权衡下中国风电装机容量省际配置优化
Optimizing China's interprovincial allocation of wind power installation capacity considering energy tri-objective trade-offs
摘要
Abstract
China's interprovincial allocation of wind power capacity involves trade-offs among economic efficiency,security,and clean-liness,representing a typical tri-objective optimization problem in energy planning.Existing single-objective optimization approaches fail to reconcile the conflicts and synergies among these three objectives,making it difficult to achieve an optimal interprovincial alloca-tion scheme.Hence,this study employed a multi-objective optimization method and innovatively constructed a tri-objective optimiza-tion model for interprovincial wind power capacity allocation based on the trade-offs among economic efficiency,security,and cleanli-ness.The results demonstrated that:① The trade-off scheme achieved synergistic optimization of economic efficiency,security,and cleanliness.The return on investment in wind power operations increased to 7.67%,the maximum power generation could meet 64%of the electricity demand,and the average annual carbon reduction contribution was approximately 1.775 billion tons.② In the tri-objec-tive trade-offs,the security trade-off was the most intense;enhancing security required significant sacrifices in either economic efficien-cy or cleanliness.Compared to the security-optimal scheme,achieving economic efficiency optimization increased the residual electrici-ty demand by 18.7%,while achieving cleanliness optimization increased it by 19.1%.③ The tri-objective trade-off scheme presented a spatial distribution pattern dependent on resource endowment.By 2050,provinces projected to have cumulative installed capacity ex-ceeding 500 GW would include Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang,while those exceeding 100 GW would include Gansu,Qinghai,Xizang,and Heilongjiang.④ The rapid expansion phase of the cleanliness-optimal scheme was projected before 2028,favoring allocation in the wind-rich Northwest China;the economy-optimal scheme would expand fastest between 2028 and 2038,preferring regions with dense high-voltage grids in North China;and the security-optimal scheme would grow most rapidly from 2039 to 2050,tending to allocate in Southwest China with higher utilization hours.Based on these findings,the following policy recommendations are proposed:① Future wind power expansion planning should prioritize security.② Promote efficient wind power integration through the adoption of flexible technologies,smart grid upgrades,and the improvement of green electricity market mechanisms.③ Establish an early warning mecha-nism for wind power capacity to prevent overcapacity risks.关键词
能源三元目标/风电装机/省际配置/多目标优化Key words
energy tri-objective optimization/wind power installation/interprovincial allocation/multi-objective optimization分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王亚东,王德鲁..能源三元目标权衡下中国风电装机容量省际配置优化[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(9):11-23,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目"基于技术预见的氢能全产业链技术协同创新实现机制及激励政策研究"(批准号:72404269) （批准号:72404269）
教育部人文社会科学基金青年项目"全产业链视角下氢能技术协同创新实现机制及激励政策研究"(批准号:24YJC630221) （批准号:24YJC630221）
江苏省社会科学基金青年项目"数据赋能长三角新能源产业链创新链融合的机制与路径研究"(批准号:24GLC002) （批准号:24GLC002）
中国矿业大学基本科研业务费社会科学基金项目"多重不确定性下可再生能源发展的影响因素、潜力及助推政策研究"(批准号:2024SK01). （批准号:2024SK01）
