中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(9)：24-38,15.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250134
断链风险时空传导下基于贸易情绪的光伏产业链韧性研究
Resilience of the photovoltaic industry chain based on trade sentiment under risk spatiotemporal transmission
摘要
Abstract
The photovoltaic(PV)industry is an important emerging industry in energy transformation and upgrading,and it is crucial to ensure the safety and resilience of its industrial chain.With the intensification of geopolitical games and frequent occurrences of uni-lateral trade protectionism worldwide,there exists great uncertainty in the global PV industrial chain supply,and the industrial chain faces the risk of chain breakage under the impact of emergencies.Based on production and trade relations,this study constructed a multi-layer network model of the global PV industrial chain from a life cycle perspective,proposed the transmission mechanism of in-dustrial chain breakage risk under the consideration of calm and panic trade sentiments,identified dynamic spatiotemporal risk trans-mission paths,and measured the resilience of the industrial chain under different levels of trade sentiments.The research findings were as follows:① From 2012 to 2021,the trade pattern of the global PV industrial chain exhibited a gradually tightening trend,and the"small cluster"phenomenon in the midstream and downstream trade of the PV industrial chain became increasingly evident.② When facing different sudden chain breakage risks,the trade of each link in the PV industrial chain showed different performances in the spa-tial and temporal dimensions of risk diffusion.Although the sudden chain breakage risk from the upstream of the industrial chain dif-fused slowly,it was the most destructive and had the widest range of transmission.The transmission speed of chain breakage risk from the midstream of the industrial chain was faster than that from the upstream,and the transmission ability of chain breakage risk within midstream trade was stronger,but the transmission ability of the industrial chain across links was poor.Although the chain breakage risk from the downstream had a smaller transmission range,its diffusion speed was the fastest.In addition,there were key paths in the transmission of chain breakage risks in each link of the PV industrial chain,such as"China-Brazil/Australia-Germany/France"in up-stream trade,"China-Japan/South Korea-Germany/USA"in midstream trade,and"China-Germany/South Korea-USA/Japan"in downstream trade.③ When facing chain breakage risks,the resilience of the industrial chain in the early stage of risk outbreak was stronger than that in the later stage of risk diffusion.④ The more intense the trade sentiment was or the closer the link of the industrial chain was to the risk outbreak area,the stronger the resilience of the industrial chain link was.Panic sentiment expanded the impact range of chain breakage risks and accelerated the transmission speed of chain breakage risks.Calm sentiment had a better inhibitory ef-fect on chain breakage risks and could limit trade conflicts between major countries to a single link of the industrial chain.This study provides quantitative evidence for the formulation of global PV industrial chain risk prevention and control policies and resilience en-hancement strategies.关键词
光伏产业链/风险时空传导/韧性评估/多层复杂网络/贸易情绪Key words
photovoltaic(PV)industry chain/spatiotemporal risk transmission/resilience assessment/multi-layer complex network/trade sentiment分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘妍心,刘逸凡,李华姣,刘雪勇..断链风险时空传导下基于贸易情绪的光伏产业链韧性研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(9):24-38,15.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目"新安全格局下基于锂资源价格极端波动的新能源汽车产业链供应风险韧性研究"(批准号:23YJCZH146) （批准号:23YJCZH146）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于多主体资源依赖的新能源汽车产业链战略性关键矿产资源供应风险级联效应及对策研究"(批准号:72173119) （批准号:72173119）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于多主体与多层网络的钢铁生产全流程"矿-能-水"耦合关系及对碳排放影响模拟"(批准号:41871202,) （批准号:41871202,）
国家自然科学基金重大项目"新时代战略性关键矿产资源安全与管理"(批准号:71991480) （批准号:71991480）
国家自然科学基金重大项目"矿产资源全产业链可持续管理体系优化"(批准号:71991481) （批准号:71991481）
北京市社会科学基金重点项目"北京市核心产业韧性提升研究"(批准号:22JCB051) （批准号:22JCB051）
北京市属高校高水平科研创新团队建设支持计划项目"基于大数据的绿色低碳转型中金融风险防控研究"(批准号:BPHR20220120). （批准号:BPHR20220120）
