中国人口·资源与环境2025，Vol.35Issue(9)：39-49,11.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20250607
气候风险对中国蓝色粮仓在险产量的影响
Impact of climate risks on the at-risk yield of China's"blue granary"
摘要
Abstract
Improving the climate risk adaptability of the"blue granary"is not only a major issue in the field of climate risk but also an inevitable requirement for ensuring food security under the holistic food concept.Based on the growth-at-risk(GaR)framework,this study utilized provincial panel data for coastal China from 2000 to 2022 to measure the at-risk yield level of the"blue granary."By con-structing a two-way fixed-effects model,a mediating-effects model,and a threshold-effects model,the study analyzed the impact of cli-mate risks on the at-risk yield of the"blue granary,"explored its mechanisms,and examined its heterogeneity.The results showed that:① Climate risks reduced the at-risk yield of China's"blue granary,"and this conclusion remained robust after a series of robustness tests.② The impact of climate risks on the at-risk yield of the"blue granary"was heterogeneous.The Yellow-Bohai Sea region,areas with smaller"blue granary"industrial scales,and regions with lower levels of digitalization in the fishery sector were more vulnerable to climate risk shocks.③ From the perspective of external shocks,climate risks reduced the at-risk yield of China's"blue granary"by in-creasing fishery disaster losses.④ From the internal-structure perspective,spatial optimization and industrial upgrading played a nega-tive moderating role in the process of climate risks affecting the at-risk yield of the"blue granary."Optimizing the spatial structure of the"blue granary"and promoting its industrial upgrading could effectively mitigate the adverse impacts of climate risks.⑤ There was a single-threshold effect of climate risks on the at-risk yield of China's"blue granary."Carbon emission intensity showed an initially promoting and then inhibiting threshold effect,whereas the diversity of marine aquaculture exhibited a threshold effect of initially inhib-iting and then promoting.Appropriately reducing carbon emission intensity and improving marine aquaculture diversity could help alle-viate the adverse effects of climate risks.Based on these findings,this study proposes the following policy:① Promote research on cli-mate risks in the"blue granary"field and strengthen its climate risk prevention and control system.② Enhance disaster warning and response mechanisms of the"blue granary"and improve the disaster insurance system for the"blue granary."③ Optimize the spatial structure of the"blue granary,"accelerate the construction of deep-sea and offshore aquaculture,promote the industrial upgrading of the"blue granary,"develop marine ranches and carbon sink fisheries,and take multiple measures to strengthen the climate risk man-agement of China's"blue granary.".关键词
气候风险/蓝色粮仓/海洋渔业/在险增长/粮食安全Key words
climate risk/blue granary/marine fishery/growth-at-risk/food security分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
纪建悦,王东方,曹绍朋..气候风险对中国蓝色粮仓在险产量的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2025,35(9):39-49,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"蓝色粮仓背景下我国海水养殖业绿色技术进步测度、方向性评价与优化研究"(批准号:71873127) （批准号:71873127）
山东省社会科学规划研究重大委托项目"以创新引领山东'蓝色粮仓'高质量发展研究"(批准号:20AWTJ19) （批准号:20AWTJ19）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目"大食物观下我国海水养殖业生产调配策略研究"(批准号:202461089). （批准号:202461089）
