中国中医药信息杂志2025，Vol.32Issue(12)：7-14,8.DOI:10.19879/j.cnki.1005-5304.202504542
基于Biomod2组合模型的气候变化下我国藏药铁棒锤适生区预测研究
Predictive Study on Suitable Habitats for Tibetan Medicinal Herb Aconiti Flavi et Penduli Radix in China Under Climate Change Based on the Biomod2 Ensemble Model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the impact of climate change on the potential distribution patterns of the Tibetan medicinal resources Aconitum pendulum Busch.and Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz.;To provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of related medicinal plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Methods Based on the Biomod2 ensemble model,integrating distribution data and multi-dimensional environmental factors for the Aconitum pendulum Busch.and Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz.,the spatiotemporal dynamics and centroid migration trends of their potential suitable areas under current and four future shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,SSP585)were simulated.Results The ensemble model exhibited good prediction accuracy.The coefficient of variation of temperature seasonality(bio4)was identified as the dominant environmental factor influencing the distribution of both species.Aconitum pendulum Busch.demonstrated stronger dependence on the mean temperature of the coldest quarter(bio11),while Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz.was more influenced by the mean diurnal range(bio2)and precipitation of the driest month(bio14).Currently,the high suitable area for Aconitum pendulum Busch.is primarily located on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,covering approximately 35.88×104 km2.The high suitable area for Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz.is centered in the eastern part of the plateau,spanning approximately 56.49×104 km2.Under future climate scenarios,significant changes in suitable area extent and centroid location were observed for both species.The high suitable area for Aconitum pendulum Busch.generally shrank,with its centroid migrating southeastward,whereas the high suitable area for Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz.showed an expanding trend,and its centroid shifted northwestward.Conclusion The findings reveal the key impact of climate change on the distribution evolution,migration and influencing factors of Aconitum pendulum Busch.and Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz.,providing theoretical reference for the conservation planning,adaptive management,and sustainable utilization of medicinal plant resources in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region.关键词
铁棒锤/伏毛铁棒锤/Biomod2/组合模型/适生区预测/质心转移Key words
Aconitum pendulum Busch./Aconitum flavum Hand.-Mazz./Biomod2/ensemble model/prediction of suitable habitats/centroid migration分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
万广珍,陈娟,王聪庆..基于Biomod2组合模型的气候变化下我国藏药铁棒锤适生区预测研究[J].中国中医药信息杂志,2025,32(12):7-14,8.基金项目
国家中医药管理局道地药材生态种植及质量保障项目(2022030014) （2022030014）
甘肃省自然科学基金(24JRRA1196) （24JRRA1196）
