广西植物2025，Vol.45Issue(11)：1949-1961,13.DOI:10.11931/guihaia.gxzw202411022
气候变化下喜旱莲子草在海南热带雨林国家公园的扩散风险研究
Dispersal risk of Alternanthera philoxeroides in Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Alternanthera philoxeroides,a globally invasive species,poses a significant threat to local ecological enviroment due to its rapid spread and adaptability to diverse environmental conditions.Hainan Tropical Rainforest National Park,a critical area for biodiversity conservation,is increasingly at risk from the spread of A.philoxeroides.Therefore,accurately mapping its distribution and conducting dynamic monitoring are essential for effective management.This study utilized field survey data and employed the"biomod2"package in the R programming language to establish species distribution models,analyzed the spatial distribution of A.philoxeroides in the national park under current and future climate scenarios,as well as key environmental factors influencing its habitat suitability.The results were as follows:(1)The suitable areas for A.philoxeroides in the national park were categorized into low,moderate,high,and very high suitability zones.Under current condition,the highly suitable area covered approximately 180.75 km2,concentrated primarily in the Yinggeling,Diaoluoshan,and Limushan areas.(2)Among the various factors influencing habitat suitability,climatic variables were found to have the most significant impact on the distribution of A.philoxeroides.Specifically,annual mean temperature range(bio7),normalized difference vegetation index(ndvi),maximum temperature in the warmest month(bio5),and precipitation of the warmest quarter(bio18)were identified as the key factors influencing habitat suitability.(3)The trends in the total habitat suitability area of A.philoxeroides under different future climate scenarios revealed two distinct patterns.In both scenarios,the centroid of suitable habitat shifted eastward.Under the high emission,extreme climate intensification scenario(SSP585),the expansion of suitable habitat was more rapid compared to the moderate sustainable development scenario(SSP126).In conclusion,the potential suitable habitat of A.philoxeroides under current climate condition is primarily located on the periphery of the national park;however,with the expected increase in global extreme climates and drastic environmental changes in the future,the risk of its spread within the national park is significantly heightened.Therefore,continuous dynamic monitoring of A.philoxeroides to track its invasion and spread trends is an important measure to effectively manage and prevent its large-scale spread in the national park.关键词
Biomod2模型/外来入侵植物/潜在分布/环境因子/国家公园Key words
Biomod2 model/alien invasive plants/potential distribution/environmental factors/national park分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
陈芷琪,杨泽秀,宋希强,杨帆..气候变化下喜旱莲子草在海南热带雨林国家公园的扩散风险研究[J].广西植物,2025,45(11):1949-1961,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(32371959) （32371959）
海南省林业局资助项目(HDZB-2023-071). （HDZB-2023-071）
