华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：34-43,10.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025087
河南省沿黄城市水土资源时空匹配特征及预测分析
Spatiotemporal Matching Characteristics and Prediction Analysis of Water-Land Resources in Cities along Yellow River in Henan Province
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Water and land resources are the most fundamental resources for economic and social development.This study aims to clarify the spatiotemporal matching relationships and variation characteristics of water and land resources,thereby providing a decision-making reference for the optimal allocation of regional water and land resources.[Methods]Taking the cities along the Yellow River in Henan Province as a case study,a system dynamics model was established based on a first-order dynamic system and historical data from 2010 to 2022.This model was used to predict regional water consump-tion from 2020 to 2035.The prediction results were then used as a constraint for the PLUS model to simulate the regional land use patterns from 2020 to 2035.Additionally,the matching coefficients of agricultural water-land resources and urban water-land resources were calculated respectively.[Results](1)The total water consumption in cities along the Yellow River in Henan Province showed an increasing trend from 2020 to 2035,among which Zhengzhou,Kaifeng,and Xinxiang exhibited a significant increasing trend.(2)From 2010 to 2020,the area transferred into construction land was substantially larger than that of other land use types,with cropland being the primary source of such transfer.(3)During 2030-2035,the matching coefficient of agricultural and urban water-land resources were 1 860 m3/hm2 and 5 130 m3/hm2,respectively,representing increases of 10.06%and 4.70%compared to the 2025-2030 period.(4)In industrial cities such as Zhengzhou,Luoyang,Sanmenxia,and Jiyuan,the matching status of urban water-land resources was relatively good,while that of agricultural wa-ter-land resources was poor.In agricultural cities such as Kaifeng,Xinxiang,Jiaozuo,and Puyang,the matching status of urban water-land resources was relatively poor,while that of agricultural water-land resources was good.[Conclusion]From 2020 to 2035,the agricultural and urban water-land resource matching coefficients in the cities along the Yellow River in Henan Province initially decrease and then increase,indicating an overall improvement in the degree of water-land resource matching.关键词
水资源/土地资源/水土匹配系数/河南省沿黄城市Key words
water resources/land resources/water-land resource matching coefficient/cities along Yellow River in Henan Province分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
郭辉,夏帆,张晓立,姜欣言,孙新华,赵路朋..河南省沿黄城市水土资源时空匹配特征及预测分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(6):34-43,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42201017) （42201017）
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202400) （2022YFC3202400）
河南省水利科技攻关项目(GG202403). （GG202403）
