华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：56-64,118,10.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025089
基于集对分析的年降水量预测模型及应用
Annual Precipitation Prediction Model Based on Set Pair Analysis and Its Application
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The prediction of annual precipitation is of great significance in revealing the dynamic change charac-teristics of regional water resources.To improve the accuracy of the set pair analysis prediction model,a study on the annual precipitation prediction model and its application based on set pair analysis is carried out.[Methods]The precipitation from 1956 to 2003 at Aiting station in Huaibei area was taken as a historical sample.Firstly,the historical set and current set were identified by autocorrelation analysis,and the grading criteria and the connection number were determined by the mean devia-tion method,the anomaly percentage method,and the mean standard deviation method.The connection numbers between the sets were then calculated by using the special value method,subtraction set pair potential method,and semi-partial subtrac-tion set pair potential method.Finally,the similar historical sets were identified according to the same potential principle,and the prediction values were determined by arithmetic average method and weighted average method,and then the annual precipitation prediction model based on set pair analysis was constructed and applied to prediction of the precipitation from 2004 to 2008,and an optimal combination method suitable for constructing the set pair analysis prediction model was pro-posed.[Results]The results showed that:it was reasonable to determine the historical set by the same potential principle;the accuracy of the prediction value calculated by the arithmetic mean method was acceptable;the subtraction set pair poten-tial and the semi-partial subtraction set pair potential were superior to the special value method in determining the connection numbers;the prediction errors of the three grading-criteria methods were all within 30.00%,and the average relative error of the mean deviation method was 11.58%,the anomaly percentage method was 14.01%,and the mean standard deviation method was 13.74%.[Conclusions]It is feasible to use the set pair analysis method for annual precipitation prediction;the subtraction set pair potential and the semi-partial subtraction set pair potential take into account both the physical characteris-tics and the dynamic change attributes,and the mean deviation method takes into account the central tendency and the disper-sion degree of the data,which is more suitable for the construction of prediction models based on the set pair analysis.关键词
年降水量/相似预测/集对分析/等级标准划分方法/减法集对势/半偏减法集对势Key words
annual precipitation/similarity prediction/set pair analysis/grading-criteria methods/subtraction set pair poten-tial/semi-partial subtraction set pair potential分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
沈瑞,蒋尚明,金菊良,张明,李征..基于集对分析的年降水量预测模型及应用[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(6):56-64,118,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42271037,52209002) （42271037,52209002）
安徽省自然科学基金项目(2208085US03,2308085US06) （2208085US03,2308085US06）
水利部2021年度水利青年拔尖人才(JHQB202227) （JHQB202227）
安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院青年科技创新计划(KY202203). （KY202203）
