华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.46Issue(6)：65-75,11.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2025090
土地利用及气候变化对南湾水库上游流域径流影响模拟
Simulation of Impacts of Land Use and Climate Change on Runoff in Upper Nanwan Reservoir Watershed
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to evaluate the impacts of land use and climate change on hydrological processes in the Nanwan Reservoir Basin,clarify the contribution of different driving factors to runoff variation,and provide a scientific ba-sis for regional water resources planning and management as well as watershed ecological protection.[Methods]Taking the Upper Nanwan Reservoir Watershed as the study area,the SWAT hydrological model was constructed and combined with land use change scenarios and multiple climate scenarios from CMIP6 to simulate and analyze the evolutionary characteristics of to-tal runoff during different periods.[Results](1)After calibration and validation,both the coefficient of determination(R2)and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NS)met the model evaluation requirements,indicating good applicability of the model in the study area.(2)Forest land,grassland,and construction land were the main land use types in the study area.Analysis based on historical inversion showed that an increase in the proportion of cultivated land increased runoff,while an increase in the proportion of forest land reduced runoff.(3)Under three future climate scenarios from CMIP6,annual total runoff in the near future(2021-2060)and far future(2061-2100)was projected to change by 10.80%-21.74%,13.19%-18.18%,and 9.93%-19.77%,respectively,with more significant increases in the far future;(4)By setting temperature and precipitation gradients,it was found that precipitation affected runoff in the range of-14.02%to 14.63%,while temperature affected runoff in the range of-0.25%to 3.10%,indicating that precipitation has a more significant driv-ing effect on runoff changes.[Conclusion]Both land use change and climate change affect runoff in the Upper Nanwan Res-ervoir Watershed,with precipitation variation being the main driving factor.Under future climate warming,runoff volume is expected to increase,especially in the long term.关键词
SWAT模型/CMIP6/气候变化/土地利用变化/径流演变/南湾水库Key words
SWAT model/CMIP6/climate change/land use change/runoff evolution/Nanwan Reservoir分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王怡飞,李永芳,宋刚福,张鹏,张雪华,唐磊..土地利用及气候变化对南湾水库上游流域径流影响模拟[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,46(6):65-75,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52109085) （52109085）
河南省科技攻关项目(242102321054,232102321045). （242102321054,232102321045）
