河海大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.53Issue(6)：12-20,9.DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2025.06.002
基于秩评分方法的CMIP6全球气候模式对淮河流域降水和气温模拟能力评估
Evaluation for CMIP6 global climate models in simulating precipitation and temperature over the Huaihe River Basin based on rank score method
摘要
Abstract
By using simulation data of precipitation and temperature in the Huaihe River Basin from 1985 to 2014 from 22 global climate models(GCMs)of the coupled model intercomparison project in phase 6(CMIP6),the simulation performance of GCMs was comprehensively assessed by means of a rank score method with seven indexes selected,and the sensitivity of the scores to each index was analyzed.The spatial simulation performance of the selected optimal GCMs was evaluated.The results reveal significant differences in the simulation performance of monthly average precipitation and temperature in the Huaihe River Basin among the models.Overall,the GCMs perform better in simulating temperatures,but there is a general overestimation of monthly average precipitation.The top five models with the best comprehensive rank score are EC-Earth3(7.83),EC-Earth3-Veg(7.66),ACCESS-CM2(7.62),TaiESM1(7.27),and FGOALS-f3-L(7.20).The rank score results for precipitation are most sensitive to the standard deviation,the statistics of Mann-Kendall trend analysis(z),and the slope of Mann-Kendall(β),while those for temperature show high sensitivity to z and β.Different combinations of rank score indexes moderately influence the scores.The EC-Earth3 model,identified as the most optimal,accurately reproduces the spatial distribution of precipitation but performs slightly less effectively for the spatial distribution of temperature.关键词
CMIP6气候模式/降水/气温/模拟能力/敏感性分析/淮河流域Key words
CMIP6 climate model/precipitation/temperature/simulation performance/sensitivity analysis/the Huaihe River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
鞠琴,马啸赞,刘艳丽,严锋,刘翠善,王诗羊,吕卓熙,张乃丰..基于秩评分方法的CMIP6全球气候模式对淮河流域降水和气温模拟能力评估[J].河海大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,53(6):12-20,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52179013,52325902) （52179013,52325902）
江苏省基础研究计划自然科学基金项目(BK20240283) （BK20240283）
安徽省·水利部淮河水利委员会水利科学研究院青年科技创新计划项目(KY202307) （KY202307）
