华南地震2025，Vol.45Issue(4)：49-58,10.DOI:10.13512/j.hndz.2025.04.07
云龙台定点形变观测的地震短临预报指标
Short Term and Imminent Earthquake Prediction Indicators for Fixed-Point Deformation Observation at Yunlong Station
摘要
Abstract
Based on historical earthquake examples,by analyzing the fixed-point deformation observation data of Yunlong Station from 2013 to 2023,the threshold of precursor anomalies and the characteristic images of imminent anomalies were obtained,providing a reference example for identifying precursor anomaly information of Yunlong Station's fixed-point deformation.The research results indicate that the short-term anomalies of water pipe tilt observation are mainly manifested as solid tide distortion and accelerated inclination,with a seismic interval≤60 days.It has good short-term indication for medium-strong earthquakes with M≥5 within a range of≤200 km around the measuring point.The strain observation of the cave body adopts the rate difference method with a threshold of 1.5 times the standard deviation,and the window anomaly method and the annual variation detection method take a threshold of 1 time the standard deviation.Earthquakes occur during the abnormal process or within 90 days after the end of the anomaly,with a prediction accuracy of 75%,all of which are evaluated by the R-value prediction efficiency.The three prediction indicators have important reference significance for the prediction of moderate-earthquakes within 300 km around the measuring point and can be applied to earthquake prediction practice as quantitative prediction indicators for tracking.Especially,the window anomaly method shows the advantages of high prediction accuracy,low false alarm rate and low omission rate.This indicator can be mainly used for strong earthquake prediction in western Yunnan.关键词
云龙台/定点形变/异常指标/识别方法Key words
Yunlong Station/Permanent deformation/Anomaly index/Discriminant method分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
字承柱,洪敏,杨树锋,张源,黑贺堂,张俊银..云龙台定点形变观测的地震短临预报指标[J].华南地震,2025,45(4):49-58,10.基金项目
2023年云南省地震局"传帮带"项目(CQ2-2023-06) （CQ2-2023-06）
