江苏大学学报（医学版）2025，Vol.35Issue(6)：521-527,7.DOI:10.13312/j.issn.1671-7783.y240214
药物涂层球囊治疗冠状动脉大血管原发病变后MACE的危险因素分析及预测模型构建
Analysis of risk factors and construction of a predictive model for major adverse cardiac events(MACE)after drug-coated balloon treatment in patients with coronary large vessel primary lesions
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for major adverse cardiac events(MACE)following the treatment of coronary large vessel primary lesions with drug-coated balloon(DCB),and to construct a nomogram prediction model.Methods:A total of 271 patients who received DCB treatment for coronary large vessel primary lesions from January 2020 to August 2022 in Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University were selected as the study subjects.According to the occurrence of MACE after treatment,patients were divided into the MACE group and the non-MACE group.Clinical data,target vessel lesion characteristics,and procedural features were compared between the two groups.Variables with statistical significance in univariate analysis were further included in multivariate Logistic regression analysis to identify independent risk factors and to develop a predictive model for MACE after DCB treatment.Results:A total of 271 patients were included,among whom 64 cases(23.62％)were in the MACE group and 207 cases(76.38％)were in the non-MACE group.Significant differences were observed between the two groups in hypertension,diabetes mellitus,smoking history,low-density lipoprotein cholesterol(LDL-C),serum creatinine(SCr),and aspirin use(P＜0.001).Regarding lesion and procedural characteristics,the incidence of acute myocardial infarction(AMI)and the degree of postoperative lesion stenosis differed significantly between groups(P＜0.01).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that hypertension,diabetes mellitus,smoking history,elevated LDL-C,elevated SCr,AMI,and higher postoperative residual stenosis were independent risk factors for MACE(P＜0.05),while aspirin use was a protective factor for MACE(P＜0.001).The constructed nomogram model demonstrated strong predictive performance,with good calibration based on the Hosmer-Lemeshow test(P=0.181).The area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUC)curve was 0.912(95％CI:0.868-0.955),with a sensitivity of 81.2％and specificity of 90.3％.Conclusion:The developed nomogram model provides good predictive accuracy for MACE occurrence in the studied population.关键词
药物涂层球囊/冠状动脉大血管原发病变/主要不良心脏事件/列线图预测模型Key words
drug-coated balloon/coronary large vessel primary lesions/major adverse cardiac events/nomogram prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
郭祥,贾辛未..药物涂层球囊治疗冠状动脉大血管原发病变后MACE的危险因素分析及预测模型构建[J].江苏大学学报（医学版）,2025,35(6):521-527,7.基金项目
河北省卫生健康委员会重点科技研究计划(20241849) （20241849）
