兰州大学学报（医学版）2025，Vol.51Issue(10)：20-25,6.DOI:10.13885/j.issn.2097-681X.2025.10.004
中国老年糖尿病患者发生衰弱的危险因素及列线图模型的预测价值
Risk factors for the development of frailty in Chinese elderly di-abetic patients and the predictive value of the nomogram model
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate into the risk factors connected with the development of frailty and the predictive value of the nomogram model in Chinese elderly patients with diabetes mellitus.Methods Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study database were used for analysis in this study,which included 1 107 older adults with diabetes after excluding participants with missing data.Participants were divided into debilitated and non-debilitated groups according to their status,either socio-demographic,behav-iouralor,health,and mental health factors were compared between the two groups.Logistic regression was used to screen patients for risk factors for the development of debility,which result was used to construct a nomogram prediction model.The predictive value of the model was assessed using calibration curve,ar-ea under curve of receiver operating characteristic,and decision curve analysis,respectively.Results Activi-ty of daily living scores,grip strength and waist circumference were lower in patients in the debilitated group than in the non-debilitated one(P<0.05).The proportions of having a spouse,alcohol consumption,smoking and social activities were lower in the debilitated group than in the non-debilitated(P<0.05),and the propor-tions of cognitive decline,chronic lung disease and pain were higher in the debilitated group than in the non-debilitated(P<0.05).The results of multifactorial Logistic regression analysis showed that lower activity of dai-ly living score and cognitive decline,lower grip strength and waist circumference,being without a spouse,with chronic lung disease,and low social activity were risk factors for the development of frailty in Chinese el-derly diabetic patients,and a nomogram model was constructed to predict such development.The results of the calibration curve showed that the predicted probability of frailty in the nomogram model was in good agree-ment with the actual probability of frailty,and the results of the(receiver operator characteristic curve showed that the area under curve value of the nomogram model was 0.879,95%CI:[0.838,0.920],and the results of the decision curve analysis curve showed that it had a high rate of net clinical benefit.Conclusion The nomogram prediction model constructed by risk factors in this study has a high degree of differentiation and accuracy,and a good predictive value and clinical application for the occurrence of debility in elderly diabetic patients.关键词
中国健康与养老追踪调查/糖尿病/衰弱/列线图/预测模型/危险因素/老年/筛查Key words
China health and retirement longitudinal study/diabetes mellitus/frailty/nomogram/predictive model/risk factors/elderly/screening分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
肖瑞丰,王睿,徐璐,许明军..中国老年糖尿病患者发生衰弱的危险因素及列线图模型的预测价值[J].兰州大学学报（医学版）,2025,51(10):20-25,6.基金项目
湖北省中医药管理局中医药科研项目(ZY2025L185) （ZY2025L185）
