辽宁农业科学Issue(6)：28-33,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1728.2025.06.005
基于泊松分布的丹东大棚草莓大风时空分布及风险分析
Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Risk Analysis of Strong Wind for Strawberry in Dandong Greenhouse based on Poisson Distribution
摘要
Abstract
Based on the meteorological observation data of four stations in Dandong area from 1994 to 2023 and the disaster information of strawberry maturity period,the temporal and spatial variation law of maximum wind speed in strawberry maturity period was analyzed,and the risk index of gale disaster in strawberry matu-rity period was established.Considering the frequency and intensity of gale,the risk levels of mild,moderate and severe gale disaster were formulated.Based on the evaluation model of Poisson distribution,the probabili-ty of different levels of gale disaster risk in Dandong area was obtained.The results showed that:(1)The maxi-mum wind speed of greenhouse strawberry in Dandong fluctuated around 10.3 m/s in 30 years,and the fluctu-ation range was 9.1～12.1 m/s.The difference between the maximum and minimum annual maximum wind speed was 3.0 m/s,which was prone to local gale disaster risk.(2)There were some differences in the num-ber of days of strong wind process in the mature period of strawberry in Dandong greenhouse in 30 years,Donggang>Fengcheng>Zhen'an>Kuandian,and the average days were 6.9 d,5.9 d,5.0 d and 2.0 d,re-spectively.The high value area was mainly distributed in the southeast coastal zone,which was significantly affected by sea and land wind.(3)The spatial distribution of high wind disaster risk index in different regions of Dandong greenhouse strawberry mature period in 30 years was different in different decades.The spatial dis-tribution characteristics of high wind disaster risk index in 1994～2003,2014～2023 and 1994～2023 were ba-sically the same,showing the characteristics of low north and high south.(4)The risk probability of gale dis-aster in Dandong in 30 years is mainly caused by mild gale disaster,with a probability of 98.2％,which is e-quivalent to more than one year(close to 100％),followed by moderate(exceeding probability 54.7％,more than two years),and the probability of severe risk is the lowest(12.5％).关键词
大棚草莓/成熟期/大风致灾/风险概率Key words
Greenhouse strawberry/Maturity/Gale disaster-causing/Risk probability分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
董海涛,姜兆彤,李如楠,房一禾..基于泊松分布的丹东大棚草莓大风时空分布及风险分析[J].辽宁农业科学,2025,(6):28-33,6.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J022) （CXFZ2021J022）
丹东市指导性科技计划项目(DD2024030) （DD2024030）
