林业经济2025，Vol.47Issue(4)：48-64,17.
国家储备林建设项目还贷能力评估研究
Study on loan repayment ability evaluation of national reserve forest construction project
摘要
Abstract
The construction of national reserve forests is a crucial measure to enhance forest resource cultivation and improve forest quality.The loan repayment ability evaluation of national reserve forest construction project is essential for maintaining the continuity and stability of project development,as well as mitigating financial risks and hiddening government liabilities.This paper focused on national reserve forest construction project,innovatively constructed a loan repayment ability indicator system encompassing four dimensions:project,government,implementing body and external environment.Using an improved Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)combined with the efficacy coefficient method,a comprehensive evaluation was conducted on two case projects in Yunnan Province.The findings indicated that:(1)The project dimension held a weight of 0.377,exerting the most significant impact on loan repayment ability.The government dimension,with a weight of 0.352,the impact on loan repayment was slightly lower than that of the project itself.(2)Both the Lijiang City and Yao'an County projects exhibited loan repayment abilities below 80,facing significant repayment risks and sharing common risk factors.First,the external benefit scores under the project dimension were both below 80,with insufficient internalization of externalities restricting improvements in loan repayment ability.Second,the government financial strength scores fell below 70,indicating weak fiscal capacities of local governments and their limited ability to provide financial support for the projects.Based on balanced scorecard principles,complex systems theory and synergetics,from the perspectives of the project,government,implementing body and external environment,this paper constructed a multi-dimensional evaluation system integrating both traditional financial and non-financial factors,and broke through the limitation that the existing repayment ability evaluation of national reserve forest construction projects only relied on financial indicators.This paper proposed policy implications such as broadening diversified revenue channels,promoting the internalization of external benefits,focusing on government fiscal capacities,and preventing hidden debt risks.关键词
国家储备林/还贷能力/隐性债务/指标体系Key words
national reserve forest/loan repayment ability/hidden debt/index system分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
宫源泽,王兰会..国家储备林建设项目还贷能力评估研究[J].林业经济,2025,47(4):48-64,17.基金项目
国家林业和草原局发展研究中心项目"国家储备林建设项目运营企业经营情况调查研究"(JYC-2024-0026). （JYC-2024-0026）
