林业经济2025，Vol.47Issue(4)：80-96,17.
洞庭湖流域土地利用变化和碳储量时空演变及预测
Land use changes and spatio-temporal evolution and prediction of carbon storage in Dongting Lake Basin
摘要
Abstract
Exploring the driving mechanism of land use change on the spatio-temporal evolution of carbon storage in the Dongting Lake Basin,and evaluating the future changing trends of carbon storage under different development scenarios,can provide data and theoretical support for the ecological protection and the balance of the carbon storage pattern in the basin.Through the coupled PLUS model with the InVEST model,and combining the land use data of three periods from 2000 to 2020,natural environment and socio-economic driving factors,this paper simulated land use changes and predicted three scenarios of natural development,forestland protection and ecological protection in 2030.Meanwhile,it calculated the carbon storage based on carbon density data,and analyzed its spatiotemporal pattern and the contribution degree of driving factors.The results showed that:(1)From 2000 to 2010,the construction land area in the Dongting Lake Basin increased 3273.70 hm²,while the cultivated land and grassland decreased 3130.00 hm²and 1937.07 hm²,respectively.The proportion of forestland area remained stable at around 60%,but from 2010 to 2020,the growth trend turned to a slight decline.The total carbon storage in the basin showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing.Forestland contributed more than 80%,the carbon storage in construction land doubled,while the carbon storage in cultivated land and grassland decreased 4.10%and 12.63%,respectively.(2)In terms of the land change driving factors,the contribution degrees of factors such as population and GDP were relatively high from 2000 to 2010,and the contribution degree of topographic factors increased from 2010 to 2020.In 2030,the carbon storage in the natural development scenario would decrease 4.51 million tons,while in the ecological protection and forestland protection scenarios,the carbon storage would increase 19.5 million tons and 34.3 million tons,respectively.The latter had the greatest carbon sink potential.(3)The rapid urbanization in the Dongting Lake Basin had led to the expansion of construction land and the loss of carbon storage,and the protection of forestland was the key to maintaining carbon sinks.The ecological protection scenario took into account both the growth of carbon storage and moderate development,was the optimal path for regional sustainable development.This article innovatively introduced the PLUS-InVEST model to analyze the changes in carbon storage of different land types,and set up scenarios for forestland protection to explore the future pattern of land carbon storage in the Dongting Lake Bain.Policy implications:The forestland protection scenario presents the highest potential for carbon sink enhancement,and the protection of forestland is crucial for achieving carbon sink targets.Optimizing the land use structure by restricting the rapid expansion of construction land can effectively reduce carbon sink loss.The coordinated development of ecological protection and local economy requires the establishment of a multi-scenario land planning system.关键词
PLUS模型/InVEST模型/土地利用变化/碳储量预测Key words
PLUS model/InVEST model/land use changes/prediction of carbon storage分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
罗仟呈,苏建兰..洞庭湖流域土地利用变化和碳储量时空演变及预测[J].林业经济,2025,47(4):80-96,17.基金项目
云南省科技厅农业联合专项"云南典型森林生态系统碳汇潜力及其价值实现路径研究"(202301BD070001-2),云南省哲学社会科学创新团队"碳汇造竹和以竹代塑产业发展研究"(2024CX15). （202301BD070001-2）
