大气科学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(6)：881-893,13.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20250126001
全球人为源排放减少对中国光伏发电潜力的影响
Impacts of global anthropogenic emissions reductions on photovoltaic po-tential in China
摘要
Abstract
Solar photovoltaic(PV)power generation represents one of the most-competitive and scalable options for low-carbon energy production.As a major energy consumer and carbon emitter,China's large-scale deploy-ment of solar PV is central to achieving its energy transition and carbon neutrality goals.However,PV generation is highly sensitive to meteorological conditions,which are in turn influenced by future changes in anthropogenic emissions under carbon neutrality targets.These interactions introduce significant uncertainty for the long-term planning and optimization of solar PV deployment in China.In this study,we use the Community Earth System Model version 2(CESM2)to conduct three sets of simulation experiments,combined with a multivariate bias correction algorithm(MBCn)to eliminate systematic model biases.We quantitatively assess the impacts of global anthropogenic carbon dioxide and aerosol emissions reduction,under a carbon neutrality scenario,on changes in PV potential(PVPOT)and the frequency of extremely low PV output events across China during the mid-21st century(2041-2060). Results show that global anthropogenic emissions reductions under a carbon neutrality pathway significantly increase PVPOT over China by approximately 4.2％,while reducing the maximum duration(PV10D),fraction of days(PV10),and number of events(PV10N)of extremely low PV output by about 21.1％,35.3％,and 56.2％,respectively,relative to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)2-4.5,which represents a moderate emission scenario.These findings suggest that global emissions mitigation not only enhances total PV generation potential but also improves the stability of PV output.The reduction of anthropogenic emissions within mainland China accounts for roughly 77％—93％of the total increase in regional mean PVPOT and 62％—92％of the total decrease in extremely low PV output across Northeast China,Central and Eastern China,and Northwest China.In contrast,emissions reductions outside mainland China contribute more substantially to improvements over the Tibetan Plateau,explaining approximately 66％of the total increase in PVPOT and 72％—82％of the reduction in extremely low PV output.These results highlight that achieving the full potential of PV generation in the energy transition requires coordinated global emission reduction efforts.Mechanistically,the observed changes in PVPOT and extremely low PV output are primarily driven by variations in surface downwelling solar radiation,with com-paratively smaller contributions from surface air temperature and wind speed. This study provides new quantitative insights to inform effective PV planning and deployment strategies in China under carbon neutrality.Nevertheless,the findings are subject to certain limitations,as they are based on simulations from a single earth system model.Future studies incorporating multi-model ensembles and evaluating additional renew-able energy sources—such as wind energy and hydropower—will be essential for developing a more comprehensive understanding of climate impacts on renewable energy systems under global decarbonization pathways.关键词
碳中和/人为源排放/气象要素/光伏发电潜力/极低光伏输出Key words
carbon neutrality/anthropogenic emissions/meteorological factors/photovoltaic potential/extremely low photovoltaic output引用本文复制引用
王志立,胡芝尧,雷亚栋,于晓超,李颖芳,张小曳..全球人为源排放减少对中国光伏发电潜力的影响[J].大气科学学报,2025,48(6):881-893,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金专项项目(42341202) （42341202）
中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金项目(2024KJ004) （2024KJ004）
国家重点科技基础设施项目"地球系统数值模拟设施"(EarthLab) （EarthLab）
