大气科学学报2025，Vol.48Issue(6)：962-975,14.DOI:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20241204001
基于ERA5数据的长江中下游流域极端降水动态研究
Dynamics of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin based on ERA5 data
摘要
Abstract
This study investigates the dynamics of extreme precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)from 1980 to 2020.Using surface observations and ERA5 hourly reanalysis,statistical tech-niques,including trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,were applied to examine spatiotemporal variability in daily and hourly extreme precipitation.The main findings are as follows:1)Both the amount and intensity of daily precipitation in the MLYRB show an increasing trend,while the frequency and spatial extent of heavy rain-fall events have declined sharply.This indicates increasing concentration of daily extremes,thereby amplifying associated risks.2)Extreme hourly precipitation occurs predominantly in the lower Yangtze River,although less frequently,with intensity increasing from the southwest to the northeast,a pattern likely shaped by topography.Mountainous regions experience weaker rainfall,whereas plains are subject to stronger extremes.3)Multi-scale analyses reveal marked heterogeneity across temporal scales.Annually,the frequency of extreme hourly rainfall is decreasing,along with reduced variability,but the intensity of individual events continues to strengthen.At sea-sonal and monthly scales,summer presents the greatest risk,with June showing the highest dispersion and stron-gest variability,while winter exhibits the weakest activity.The high frequency of precipitation events in spring further elevates flood risk.4)Peak values of extreme hourly rainfall exhibit only modest downward trends and limited interannual variability.Event frequency is concentrated in three main periods(01:00 BST-07:00 BST,08:00 BST-19:00 BST,and 20:00 BST-24:00 BST),each showing an increasing trend.Late-stage rainfall dominates extreme hourly precipitation in the MLYRB,occurring far more frequently than other types and remai-ning stable over long timescales,indicating persistence in temporal distribution patterns.These results suggest that mitigation strategies for flood and waterlogging should account for the concentration and persistence of extreme hourly rainfall in the MLYRB.By analyzing precipitation dynamics across multiple scales,this study provides new insights into the mechanisms of extreme rainstorm events,offering a scientific basis for policy development,urban planning,and climate adaptation.The findings also contribute to disaster risk reduction by supporting more effective early warning systems and enhancing community resilience to extreme weather events.关键词
极端小时降水/长江中下游流域/雨型/环流因子/地形/土地利用与覆盖变化Key words
extreme hourly precipitation/middle and lower Yangtze River basin(MLYRB)/precipitation type/circulation/topography/land use and cover change引用本文复制引用
顾皓婷,何光鑫,马丽娟,罗京佳,李忠良..基于ERA5数据的长江中下游流域极端降水动态研究[J].大气科学学报,2025,48(6):962-975,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFF0802003) （2022YFF0802003）
风云应用创新项目(FY-APP) （FY-APP）
中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2023QN10) （CMA2023QN10）
海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室项目(SCSF201804 （）
419QN330) （）
环渤海区域海洋气象科技协同创新项目(QYXM202409) （QYXM202409）
