人民黄河2025，Vol.47Issue(12)：35-41,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2025.12.006
黄河源区水源涵养与径流演化趋势
Water Conservation and Runoff Evolution Trend in the Source Region of the Yellow River
摘要
Abstract
The source region of the Yellow River(SRYR)is an important water conservation and runoff production area in the Yellow River Basin.In the context of climate change,evaluating the water source conservation and runoff evolution trends in the SRYR is of great practical significance for basin management.This research collected DEM,land use,soil,meteorological,and measured runoff data from the SRYR,and built a high-precision ecological hydrological model(soil and water assessment tool,SWAT)and statistical downscaling model(SDSM)to calculate and analyze the temporal,spatial,and ecosystem scale changes in water conservation capacity and the evolution trend of runoff in the SRYR.The results show that the average water conservation capacity of the SRYR from 1970 to 2024 is 126.4 mm,with a distribution pattern of less in the east and more in the west,and less in the south and north,with significant spatial differences.The contribution rate of grassland to the water conservation of the SRYR is the highest,at 78.2%.The rainfall runoff method shows that the precipitation in the SRYR has increased and decreased by 15%,and the runoff has increased and decreased by 26.82%and 21.15%compared to the baseline level.The simulation results of the ecological hydrological model show that comparing to the current year(2010-2023),the recent(2025-2050)and long-term(2051-2100)changes in runoff in the source area are-2.22%to 6.51%and-0.23%to 10.23%respectively.关键词
水源涵养/径流/气候变化/黄河源区Key words
water conservation/runoff/climate change/source region of the Yellow River分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
赵高磊,田世民,陈融旭,黄勃潮,梁帅,王新,段佳卉..黄河源区水源涵养与径流演化趋势[J].人民黄河,2025,47(12):35-41,7.基金项目
黄河水科学研究联合基金资助项目(U2243214) （U2243214）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52309092) （52309092）
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(HKY-JBYW-2024-08) （HKY-JBYW-2024-08）
