陕西水利Issue(12)：1-5,13,6.
基于CMIP6数据的中国西南地区极端降水事件预估
Projection of Extreme Precipitation Events in Southwest China Based on CMIP6 Data
摘要
Abstract
Based on observed precipitation data from meteorological stations in Southwest China during 1980-2014 and bias-corrected downscaled CMIP6 data,the performance of 16 models in simulating extreme precipitation events was evaluated.Using Taylor diagrams and the Mann-Kendall trend test,the MPI-ESM1-2-LR model was selected as the optimal model to project extreme precipitation events from 2015 to 2100.The results indicate a significant increasing trend for all extreme precipitation indices,with stronger intensity and higher frequency under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to SSP2-4.5.Spatially,the increase in extreme precipitation shows a decreasing gradient from southeast to northwest,with the significantly affected area expanding over time.The findings suggest that the frequency,intensity,and wetness of extreme precipitation events in Southwest China will increase markedly in the future.关键词
CMIP6/极端降水事件/时空变化特征/西南地区Key words
CMIP6/extreme precipitation events/spatiotemporal variation/Southwest China分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
来依凡,高婕,敖天其..基于CMIP6数据的中国西南地区极端降水事件预估[J].陕西水利,2025,(12):1-5,13,6.基金项目
西藏科技厅重点研发计划(XZ202101ZY007G) （XZ202101ZY007G）
