陕西水利Issue(12)：21-24,4.
基于PLUS模型的宁夏黄河流域生态系统服务价值多情景模拟及预测研究
Multi scenario simulation and prediction of ecosystem service value in the Ningxia Yellow River Basin based on the PLUS model
摘要
Abstract
It is of great significance to explore the ESV evolution characteristics of the Ningxia Yellow River basin under the multi-development scenario to realize the ecological sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin.Based on the land use characteristics of the Ningxia Yellow River basin from 1980 to 2020,the PLUS model and value equivalent method were used to evaluate and forecast the ESV of the Ningxia Yellow River basin in the"past-present"and"future"multi-development scenarios.The results showed that the Ningxia Yellow River basin was dominated by grassland and farmland,and the land change was the most active from 2000 to 2010.The Kappa coefficient simulated by PLUS model was 0.892,and the total accuracy was 0.908,indicating that the model was suitable for the Ningxia Yellow River basin.The sensitivity coefficients of all land use types were less than 1,indicating that ESV was inelastic to value coefficient,and the calculated results were reliable.From 1980 to 2020,the ESV of the Ningxia Yellow River basin decreased by 9.412 billion yuan.In 2030,the ESV was 157.435 billion yuan under the natural development scenario,the lowest was 157.426 billion yuan under the economic development scenario,and the highest was 157.751 billion yuan under the ecological protection scenario.The conclusions can provide some basis for the future ecological protection strategy of the Ningxia Yellow River basin.关键词
生态系统服务价值/土地利用/PLUS模型/多情景预测/宁夏黄河流域Key words
Ecosystem service value/land use/PLUS,model/Multi-scenario prediction/Ningxia Yellow River basin分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
高华峰,武春晓,李文静..基于PLUS模型的宁夏黄河流域生态系统服务价值多情景模拟及预测研究[J].陕西水利,2025,(12):21-24,4.基金项目
2024年度河北省自然科学基金青年项目(E2024402052) （E2024402052）
