沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.18Issue(5)：528-539,12.DOI:10.7688/j.issn.1674-0823.2025.05.06
农业劳动力转移对农业生产率的影响
Impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural productivity:a perspective based on rural land transfer
摘要
Abstract
Modern economic development has offered vast non-agricultural employment choices for the rural labor force.Nevertheless,this off-farm behavior has simultaneously challenged the traditional labor-intensive agricultural production model.As the land plots contracted by rural households in China are generally small in size,it is difficult to mitigate the agricultural production losses resulting from rural labor force outflows by using large-scale agricultural mechanization.In response to this practical predicament,the Chinese government is actively promoting the rural land transfer policy,aiming to optimize the allocation of land resources and enhance agricultural production efficiency to adapt to the changes in the labor structure.However,it remains undetermined whether such behavior can alleviate the contradiction between rural labor transfer and agricultural production.To explore whether rural land transfer alleviates the agricultural production disturbance caused by rural labor transfer and its threshold level,we conduct an empirical study on this issue using the sample of rural households from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study database in 2018 and contrast it with the sample in 2013 when the rural land transfer policy was not yet widely implemented.The polynomial regression and threshold regression analysis are innovatively conducted,in which agricultural productivity is the explained variable,rural labor transfer is the core explanatory variable,and rural land transfer is the threshold variable.(1)The rate of rural labor transfer,and the rate of rural land transfer in 2018 all exceed those in 2013,indicating that the three are experiencing profound changes.(2)The impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural productivity in 2018 presents a U-shaped pattern of first decreasing and then increasing,with no significant relationship between the two in 2013.By dividing the sample into two parts based on whether rural land transfer has occurred and re-conducting the polynomial regression,it is discovered that rural households who choose land transfer can significantly enhance agricultural productivity with the transfer of labor force,suggesting that rural land transfer might be a crucial reason for the alteration in the relationship between the two.(3)The agricultural productivity exerts a significant single threshold effect.When the average rural land transfer area of rural households in this sample exceeds 20.83%of the contracted rural land,rural labor transfer can significantly improve agricultural productivity,namely that promoting rural land transfer is conducive to achieving a win-win situation of non-agricultural employment for rural households and the enhancement of agricultural productivity.(4)For rural households whose land rights have been confirmed and those in grain-producing areas,the threshold value of rural land transfer is lower than the average level of the sample,namely that a relatively low degree of the threshold of rural land transfer can achieve a positive impact of rural labor transfer on agricultural productivity.Based on this,we propose that rural land transfer should continue to be promoted,and in the overall direction of rural land transfer,more emphasis should be placed on the land area transferred rather than expanding the number of rural households participating in the transfer.Additionally,it is necessary to accelerate the confirmation of land rights and implement differentiated rural land transfer scale strategies based on local conditions to adapt to the needs of different rural households and the characteristics of local agricultural development.关键词
农业生产率/农村劳动力转移/农地流转/非线性关系/门槛回归/土地确权/粮食主产区Key words
agricultural productivity/rural labor transfer/rural land transfer/nonlinear relationship/threshold regression/confirmation of land rights/grain-producing area分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郭家宏..农业劳动力转移对农业生产率的影响[J].沈阳工业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,18(5):528-539,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41641002). （41641002）
