王阳 1杨立新 1李征 1胡跃世 1段启新 1李新悟 1左金明 1李明林1
作者信息
- 1. 南阳市中心医院泌尿外科,河南 南阳 473000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the trend of the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2021,evaluate the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China in 2021,explore the age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China based on the age-period-cohort model,and predict the trend of the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer in the future,so as to provide scientific basis for the formulation of the prevention and control strategies of bladder cancer.Methods The data in this study were from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021)database.The annual percentage change(APC)and average APC(AAPC)of bladder cancer were calculated by the Joinpoint regression model.The age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the age,period,and cohort effects on the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer.The Nordpred prediction model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer in China from 2022 to 2045.Results In 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate of bladder cancer in China was 5.14/100 000,and the age-standardized mortality rate was 2.34/100 000.From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized incidence rate showed an increasing trend year by year,with an average annual increase of 0.30%(95%CI:0.08%-0.52%,P=0.007),while the age-standardized mortality rate showed a decreasing trend year by year,with an average annual decrease of 1.26%(95%CI:-1.51%-1.01%,P<0.01).The age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China increased significantly with age.The incidence and mortality peaked at 85-90 years old and 90-94 years old,re-spectively.The incidence and mortality of men were much higher than those of women.From 1992 to 2021,the incidence risk of bladder cancer in China showed an increasing trend year by year in the overall population and males,and a decreasing trend in females.At the same time,the mortality risk showed a significant downward trend in the overall population.Across successive birth cohorts,the death risk of bladder cancer showed a declining trend,while the incidence risk showed a decreasing trend in older birth cohorts,and a slightly increas-ing trend in younger birth cohorts.The predicted age-standardized incidence rate of bladder cancer in China increased from 7.11/100 000 in 2022 to 7.90/100 000 in 2045,and the predicted age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 3.18/100 000 in 2022 to 3.01/100 000 in 2045.Conclusions The risk of bladder cancer is still significantly higher in men and elderly people.The prevention and control of bladder cancer in the future should focus on the early screening and intervention of high-risk groups,and strengthen health education and lifestyle management.Especially in the context of increasing aging,it is necessary to further improve the ability of primary medical services,and promote the popularization of early diagnosis and precise treatment to reduce the disease burden of bladder cancer.关键词
膀胱癌/趋势分析/年龄-时期-队列模型/预测Key words
bladder cancer/trend analysis/age-period-cohort model/prediction
