天然气工业2025，Vol.45Issue(11)：14-29,16.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2025.11.002
中国天然气产业链系统韧性评估体系、模型与情景仿真
Resilience assessment system,model and scenario simulation of China's natural gas industry chain system
摘要
Abstract
As an important"stabilizer"and"regulator"in the process of China's energy transition,natural gas is facing problems such as expanding import scale and high external dependence,which will cause serious harm to China's energy security in the event of import interruption.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to analyze the resilience of China's natural gas industry chain system and assess its bearing and recovery capacities under the impact of import shortage.Current research on the resilience of natural gas industry chain system mainly focuses on the theoretical level,with weak integration with the actual situation of China's industry chain,and poor guidance and operability in production and operation.To this end,this paper establishes a static-dynamic combined resilience assessment system for natural gas industry chain system covering"import network,domestic supply and demand,and emergency response mechanism",and an ecological network model of China's natural gas import to analyze the robustness and key nodes of the import network,which serve as the input conditions of the subsequent model.Then,a dynamic model of China's natural gas industry chain system is established to analyze the recovery capacity of China's natural gas industry chain system under different time scales,different scenarios of gas supply interruption and different emergency measures.Finally,policy measures to enhance the resilience of China's natural gas industry chain system are proposed based on the characteristics of natural gas production,supply,storage and distribution in China.The following results are obtained.First,China's natural gas import network has become increasingly complex,with an increase in the number of import source countries and import routes;the proportion of imports from various countries tends to be decentralized and the ability to resist import risks has been enhanced.But the strategic vulnerability of key chanenels such as the Strait of Malacca is still prominent.Second,when there is a shortfall of 54％LNG imports for 90 days in the non-heating season,the reserve contingency can ensure the balanced supply and demand of natural gas industry chains system;while in the heating season,demand-side reduction measures must be initiated in order to restore supply-demand balance.Third,when there is a shortfall of 54％of LNG imports for five years,it is difficult to make up for the shortfall by relying on endogenous adjustments,such as reducing energy intensity and energy substitution,among which raising energy substitution rate is better than reducing energy intensity.The technical breakthrough of unconventional natural gas is the key to guarantee long-term supply security of natural gas industry chain system.In conclusion,to improve the resilience of China's natural gas industry chain system,it is necessary to adopt a combined strategies of"stabilizing external supply,strengthening internal reserves,accelerating energy saving and consumption reduction,and taking non-fossil energy as a substitute".关键词
天然气产业链系统安全/生态网络模型/系统动力学模型/能源安全/韧性评估/政策建议/应急措施Key words
Security of natural gas industry chain system/Ecological network model/System dynamics model/Energy security/Resilience assessment/Policy recommendation/Emergency measure分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
黄维和,池立勋,周淑慧,王军,梁严,王子莎,陈晨..中国天然气产业链系统韧性评估体系、模型与情景仿真[J].天然气工业,2025,45(11):14-29,16.基金项目
中国石油天然气集团有限公司科技管理部项目"我国天然气安全发展研究"(编号:2023DQ0712). （编号:2023DQ0712）
